Wednesday September 12 2018

Hurricane Florence is still strong this morning with 130 mph winds and is looking like it will get stronger today. My prior report mentioned the European Model stalling this offshore and then shifting the track southward inland to South Carolina and Georgia. There is more support for that and the slow movement will be absolutely devastating! While that is better news for Maryland (and we will end up with a nicer weekend), this is a larger storm. So the wind reach is still just on the edge of our region.

We still have rain today to deal with, so this post will start with our local weather first. All of the Hurricane Florence Info is below.

Local Weather Stats For September 12 in Baltimore

Average High:  79ºF

Record High: 96ºF in 1931

Average  Low: 59ºF

Record Low: 43ºF in 1967

Sunrise: 6:44 AM

Sunset 7:19 PM

*Daylight = 2:31 shorter than yesterday 

*Bay Water Temperature = 76ºF at Thomas Pt. Light House 


Also see:

Winter Outlook From Two Different Farmers Almanacs

Video of Hurricane Hunter flying into the Eye and first call for track shifting 


Regional Satellite

The clouds in place are form the old frontal boundary. Hurricane Florence is seen on the high just on the edge of this view. It is NOT influencing our weather yet, but we will have some tropical like feel to the air along with showers and storms developing.


Radar Simulation —> slider

[metaslider id=65481]


High Temperatures


Hurricane Florence


LOCATION…29.0N 70.1W






Satellite Loop

Wind Field

  • Hurricane Force Winds (over 74 mph) reach 40 miles from the center.  
  • Tropical Storm Force Winds (over 39 mph) reach 150 miles away.  


Landfall Expectation

Similar to what I showed yesterday, the HWRF also shows Florence nearly stalling off of the coast around Wilmington. Should this happen, it would extend the devastation for that area, but limit the impacts farther north in Virginia and Maryland.

The same High Pressure blocking the storm will keep the winds from the EAST. That will pile up water on the coast AND the western shore of the Chesapeake Bay… But not a pure storm surge. Each high tide wil have trouble draining out, keeping water levels high.


Storm Surge Warning

The direct impact of the storm surge water is shown here.  Some places near Wilmington can see water levels 9 to 13 feet high.

Cape Fear to Cape Lookout, including the Neuse, Pamlico, Pungo, and
Bay Rivers...9-13 ft
North Myrtle Beach to Cape Fear...6-9 ft
Cape Lookout to Ocracoke Inlet...6-9 ft
South Santee River to North Myrtle Beach...4-6 ft
Ocracoke Inlet to North Carolina/Virginia Border...4-6 ft
Edisto Beach to South Santee River...2-4 ft


Wind Reach

Southern Maryland will be on the edge with some chance to get gusts over 39 mph, but not expected into central Maryland.  The stronger winds over 59 mph are not likely locally.

Tropical Storm Force Wind Expectation


Winds Over 58 mph Expectation


Forecast Track South

This is the GFS Model showing the storm Saturday afternoon STILL NEAR Wilmington. This was the first model to show the stall off of the coast, just in a different location. It is now in sync with the position and track. Notice the lack of moisture in Maryland. Some showers and more clouds near Ocean City, but the rest of the state may have a few nice days.


Hurricane Florence Forecast Animation

This is the stall, crawl, and shift into South Carolina and Georgia. This brings the Low into Tennessee Sunday.



National Hurricane Center Forecast Track


Flash Flood Risk Forecast


Rainfall Forecast

Over 20 inches expected in a wide region near the core along coastal North Carolina.  This may start to be compared to Hurricane Harvey that stalled over Houston last year.




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