September 26 2018
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for our area until 11 PM. This means the strong line of storms will have the potential to produce winds in excess of 58 mph, large hail over 1 inch diameter, and flash flooding in locally heavy downpours. There will be a strong line of storms with this potential but that is not a promise all areas will have this develop. I have mentioned this line all day and as of 5 PM it looked much more impressive on radar than the simulation showed. That means looking at that timeline should also consider the storms are progressing a little faster as well.
Conditions at 5 PM
The wind direction across most of our areas is form the Southwest. But the kink is the Southeast wind on the Chesapeake Bay. That Bay Breeze often enhances the storm potential in Metro Baltimore. A convergence zone where the different winds meet up also will likely increase the rising air and storm potential. This is why the storms are expected to peak around central Maryland and the line may slow down for a few hours between I-70 and Rt 50.
Radar Loop: 2 Hours ending at 5 PM
Here is a comparison of the 5 PM Doppler Radar snapshot to compare to the 5 PM forecast from the HRRR Model.
Radar Simulation —> slider
The HRRR Model has underestimated the initial intensity, so the flare up will be more impressive. The timing also seems to be behind by about 1 hour. So the Baltimore beltway may see the storms arrive by 7 PM instead of 8 PM. I would still consider the line possibly slowing down or stalling in metro areas, keeping the heavy rain around a few extra hours.
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