1 PM Tuesday October 2 2018

The warmer temps and hint of humidity in the air might give away that something is trying to develop today. The potential for rain and possibly thundershowers will be later this afternoon and evening. The bulk of the energy will remain to our north, but there will be an impulse over central Maryland that will try to provide the energy to ignite something around metro Baltimore.

Below is the latest look and radar simulation. We will be watching:

  • 4 PM to 6 PM: Frederick, Carroll, Baltimore (MD); Southern Adams/York Co (PA)- Brief cluster of showers/T’storm
  • 6 PM to 9 PM: Montgomery, Howard, northern Anne Arundel, Baltimore City – A second band of storms moving east between Rt 50 and I-70.

The cold front will remain to our north and we will remain rather warm for the bulk of the next two weeks. More on that in my next post.

Here is the visible satellite loop into early afternoon:

2 Hours Ending At 1:02 PM

 

The surface conditions show a southwesterly flow and temps from the mid 70s to lower 80s.  If you remember the storm eruption last week, I showed he microclimate of wind direction off of the Chesapeake Bay that can enhance storm potential. We need a southeast wind form the water to converge with any system arriving from the west for a chance of metro area storms to blossom. Otherwise they often fade in the lower terrain.

 

 

 

Radar Loop

2 Hours ending at 1:10 PM

 

Radar Simulation —> slider

  • 4 PM to 6 PM: Frederick, Carroll, Baltimore (MD); Southern Adams/York Co (PA)- Brief cluster of showers/T’storm
  • 6 PM to 9 PM: Montgomery, Howard, northern Anne Arundel, Baltimore City – A second band of storms moving east between Rt 50 and I-70.

 

 

Also see:

Will A Wet Summer Bring A Snowy Winter?

Winter Outlook From Two Different Farmers Almanacs

 

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