October 4 2018
After the second wettest summer and one of the wettest Septembers in Baltimore, this month is off to a different start. October is only a few days old, but the hint of summer is in the air and it may stick around. While a cold front will bring temperatures down for two days, those temperatures will be close to average. Multiple temperature outlooks recently released by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC). This is reflected in the long range jet stream forecast showing a return to a warm pattern for the eastern US.
Here is a quick look and what it may mean short term and long range…
NOAA Climate Prediction Center
Day 6 to 10 shows a 90% likelihood of above average temperatures in the eastern US. The rare map here also shows a large area with 90% chance of below average temperatures
Day 8 to 14 shows a 50% to 60% likelihood of above average temperatures in the eastern US. The rare map here also shows a large area with 90% chance of below average temperatures
Temperatures next week climatologically drop into the 60s for ‘normal’ highs. The forecast trend has many days in the upper 70s and lower 80s.
Full Month Of October
Now look at the model forecast. This GFS Model shows the upper level pattern at 500mb (18,000 Ft). The orange is the warm ridge and the blue represents the cooler trough. There is an indication that there will be some cool days, but the only well pronounced one is way off at Oct 16. But the flow trend warmer in the days that follow. See the animation below this comparison of next Tuesday and the Tuesday that follows.
|Warm Air Next Week||Brief Cool Down A Week Later|
Jet Stream Animation
What could this mean?
The potential benefit of this extended warm spell will extend the leave peeping season. There is a theory that the wet summer and delayed cooling of the soil will allow for a longer time to break down chlorophyll. So leaves may the longer to turn and possibly be brighter.
Trees in metro Baltimore are already turning. This was seen in Timonium today (October 4)
More winter snow?
Recently I shared some research about how a wet summer may relate to snow the following winter. The only significant statistical stand out was a dry autumn. Should we continue with this warm and dry pattern for the month and perhaps into November, that increases the odds of more snow this winter following our very wet summer.
The thinking is this: If we have a very wet summer, then the jet stream has an abnormal amplitude. Extremes breed extremes! so if we are followed by a warm and dry autumn, the chances increase for that high amplitude pattern on the colder side swings back our way in time for winter. But if we stayed wet/cool, then the pattern would more likely flip warm and dry later on.
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