Thursday October 11 2018

If this was a winter storm, the northern edge of the precipitation would be the low confidence zone.  I realize that starting off with that you might also be asking yourself how much snow this would be too. I won’t go there… now.  The focus here is on the rainfall and potential flooding. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect up to I-95 in northern Maryland. This is among numerous other advisories for our area cluttering the map.  Here is a quick look.

If you live on the north edge in Cecil, Harford, or Baltimore Counties in Maryland, you will get rain. The question is whether the heaviest of the rain will sit over your area or just south.

If you live in Howard, Carroll, Frederick Counties in Maryland, or York or Lancaster in PA- I expect rain and there are some moderate showers this afternoon as seen in this radar at 2:40 PM

 

I show this because it does look more impressive than the radar simulation update from the HRRR Model. I have that in the slider below…

First a look at the radar loop (2 hours)

 

Radar Simulation –> slider

This will be interesting…. The latest HRRR Model has shifted the rain south, but enhanced the heavy rain across southern Maryland. That is due to the progress of the same cold front that will brings most of us into the 50s tomorrow afternoon.

The former norther edge of Michael’s eye wall will be passing through southern Maryland. It will get rough tonight!

This will also act a little like a developing Nor’Easter as the storm pulls in moisture from the Atlantic. There may be a flare up or enhancement of rain after 9 PM tonight which lines up with the arrival in Southern Maryland.

The best bet is that areas near and south of the Bay Bridge will have the best chance for flooding from heavy rain.  There is still a margin of error of about 50 miles that could still include Baltimore. So don’t write off the heavy rain there.

 

 

 

 

HRRR Model Rainfall Total

 

 

Wind Timeline —> slider

 

Friday Morning 

 

Animation

The rain will be off of the coast Friday morning. Michael may gain more strength over the warmer Gulf Stream and continue to provide rough surf across the coast through the weekend.

 

Keep In Touch Every Day

Click here to sign up for email alerts…. Just in case you don’t get the post on your social media feed

 

Please share your thoughts, best weather pics/video, or just keep in touch via social media

 

 

Love Maryland Shirt For Breast Cancer Research Foundation

This shirt was designed by my ‘bonus’ daughter Jaiden. This is a limited edition (available in Ts, Long Sleeve, and Hoodies). At least $5 per shirt will go to BCRF. 

 

Order Here

Show your love for Maryland and make this 14 year old artist and her mom extra proud

 

 

 

 

 

 

Partner With Us. My wife Shannon and I started this non profit Just In Power Kids. We are building a network of Integrated Wellness Practitioners plus funds for kids in and post cancer treatment to get free sessions.

 

Get the award winning Kid Weather App I made with my oldest son and support our love for science, weather, and technology. Our 3 year anniversary of the release and our contribution to STEM education is this November. It has been downloaded in 60 countries, and works in both temperature scales. With your support we can expand on the fun introduction to science and real weather.