Thursday October 11 2018
Rain has already passed through this morning but the bulk of what we will see will be tonight. The impact of Tropical Storm Michael will be felt across much of our area both directly and indirectly. The center of the storm will be passing within 100 miles of Ocean City thanks to a cold front pushing it off of the coast. Rain will affect our area from both systems as they seem to merge into one.
This morning the core of Tropical Storm Michael is passing through South Carolina with 50 mph. It was moving at 21 mph to the northeast en route to Charlotte and then across North Carolina. This is crossing the path of where Florence hit a few weeks ago.
Severe storms are inevitable today and tonight. Below is a look at the risk for tornadoes and severe storms.
The higher chance for winds to reach 50 mph gusts (or higher) between 6 PM Thursday to 6 AM Friday. This includes southern Maryland and Delmarva sided in light brown. See the wind timeline slider below
Includes much of southern and Southeast VA. But the risk does extend across lower Delmarva. The chance for Ocean City for a tornado is between 2% and 5%. This is lower due to the track of the storm and timing of arrival after midnight.
Severe Storm Risk
As with all landfalling tropical cyclones, the wind sheer aloft can produce twisters and pull stronger winds down to the surface with gusts over 58 mph. The marginal risk reaches into metro Baltimore and southern PA. Lower Maryland and Southeast VA have a higher chance for storms to turn severe.
2 Hours through 10 AM
Rain Timeline —> slider
We will have a lull for a few hours with some mist or light showers. The heaviest rain will arrive this evening and overnight, with the northern edge of the heavy rain cutting through central Maryland and possibly into parts of York and Lancaster Counties in PA.
How Much Rain?
This updated potential rain is just through midnight. A limitation of the HRRR Model timeline. More will fall on the eastern shore for a few additional hours.
Total Rain On GFS Model
This includes the end of Michael moving off of the coast. This model has lower totals across southern Maryland and the Eastern Shore but still a wide range over 2 inches. Ocean City should end up with 4 to 6 inches of rain.
Wind Timeline —> slider
The rain will be off of the coast Friday morning. Michael may gain more strength over the warmer Gulf Stream and continue to provide rough surf across the coast through the weekend.
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