Thursday October 11 2018

Rain has already passed through this morning but the bulk of what we will see will be tonight.  The impact of Tropical Storm Michael will be felt across much of our area both directly and indirectly. The center of the storm will be passing within 100 miles of Ocean City thanks to a cold front pushing it off of the coast.  Rain will affect our area from both systems as they seem to merge into one.

This morning the core of Tropical Storm Michael is passing through South Carolina with 50 mph. It was moving at 21 mph to the northeast en route to Charlotte and then across North Carolina. This is crossing the path of where Florence hit a few weeks ago.

Severe storms are inevitable today and tonight.  Below is a look at the risk for tornadoes and severe storms.

Wind Advisory

The higher chance for winds to reach 50 mph gusts (or higher) between 6 PM Thursday to 6 AM Friday. This includes southern Maryland and Delmarva sided in light brown. See the wind timeline slider below

Tornado Probability/Watch

Includes much of southern and Southeast VA.  But the risk does extend across lower Delmarva. The chance for Ocean City for a tornado is between 2% and 5%. This is lower due to the track of the storm and timing of arrival after midnight.

 

Severe Storm Risk

As with all landfalling tropical cyclones, the wind sheer aloft can produce twisters and pull stronger winds down to the surface with gusts over 58 mph. The marginal risk reaches into metro Baltimore and southern PA.  Lower Maryland and Southeast VA have a higher chance for storms to turn severe.

Radar Loop

2 Hours through 10 AM

 

Rain Timeline —> slider

We will have a lull for a few hours with some mist or light showers. The heaviest rain will arrive this evening and overnight, with the northern edge of the heavy rain cutting through central Maryland and possibly into parts of York and Lancaster Counties in PA.

 

How Much Rain?

This updated potential rain is just through midnight. A limitation of the HRRR Model timeline. More will fall on the eastern shore for a few additional hours.

 

Total Rain On GFS Model

This includes the end of Michael moving off of the coast. This model has lower totals across southern Maryland and the Eastern Shore but still a wide range over 2 inches.  Ocean City should end up with 4 to 6 inches of rain.

 

Wind Timeline —> slider

 

Friday Morning 

 

Animation

The rain will be off of the coast Friday morning. Michael may gain more strength over the warmer Gulf Stream and continue to provide rough surf across the coast through the weekend.

Keep In Touch Every Day

Click here to sign up for email alerts…. Just in case you don’t get the post on your social media feed

 

Please share your thoughts, best weather pics/video, or just keep in touch via social media

 

 

Love Maryland Shirt For Breast Cancer Research Foundation

This shirt was designed by my ‘bonus’ daughter Jaiden. This is a limited edition (available in Ts, Long Sleeve, and Hoodies). At least $5 per shirt will go to BCRF. 

 

Order Here

Show your love for Maryland and make this 14 year old artist and her mom extra proud

 

 

 

 

 

 

Partner With Us. My wife Shannon and I started this non profit Just In Power Kids. We are building a network of Integrated Wellness Practitioners plus funds for kids in and post cancer treatment to get free sessions.

 

Get the award winning Kid Weather App I made with my oldest son and support our love for science, weather, and technology. Our 3 year anniversary of the release and our contribution to STEM education is this November. It has been downloaded in 60 countries, and works in both temperature scales. With your support we can expand on the fun introduction to science and real weather.