October 20 2018

For thousands of people, the good news today was getting the rain out of Baltimore for the Run Fest. It will be a mild day before more showers move in later and tonight. This will mark colder air that will lead to a few inches of snow in western Maryland and surrounding mountains. Yes, there will be stickage and I will show photos to prove it! Nearby ski resorts such as Wisp, Snowshoe, Canaan, and 7 Springs will be showing off their power on Sunday. Bring it! FITF

But first, let’s get today’s to today’s weather:

Local Weather Stats For October 18 in Baltimore

Average High:  66ºF

Record High: 87ºF in 1969

Average  Low: 44ºF

Record Low:  28ºF in 1992

Record Snow:  0.9″ in 1940–> 2-Day Total 1.3″ that year

Sunrise: 7:21 AM

Sunset 6:20 PM 

*Daylight = 2:26 shorter than yesterday 

*Bay Water Temperature = 66ºF at Thomas Pt. Light House 

 

New Report

The NOAA Winter Outlook may seem vague, but actually supports snow for our region

Also see:

Normal First Frost/Freeze Dates

NOAA Winter 2018-2019 Outlook Explained: This Actually Supports Snow

Will A Wet Summer Bring A Snowy Winter?

Winter Outlook From Two Different Farmers Almanacs

 

Morning Snapshot

Temperatures

 

Multiple Surges of Colder Air

The southern branch of the jet stream is very active and will be an important role in our winter pattern. For now it will get pushed to the south as a strong push of colder air will move in. This will spark our afternoon and evening rain showers, then the overnight snow in the mountains.

 

 

Radar Simulation Today—> slider

 

Radar Simulation Sunday—> slider

 

Snow Potential

This will be a test of the models. The NAM 3 Km is most aggressive and I can see the high end off snow for higher elevations over 4,000 Ft. Snowshoe Mountain at 4848′ is its own climate and can easily push the 6 inch mark with a set up like this. The GFS is much more conservative but still showing stickage.

 

 

Temperatures

Low Temps Sunday support stickage in the mountains

 

Sunday Afternoon – not much warming during the day

 

Temperature Outlook

Most of the next 10 days look below average. We may have a storm next weekend but I have been hesitant to discuss that more than a week out as it has changed quite a bit on the modeling. I will discuss that tomorrow.

 

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