Saturday October 20 2018

I might have a problem. I am a married man, dad of two boys and in my mid 40s. But when the first snow of the season is within driving distance, I had to go see it with my own eyes. Faith in the Flakes (FITF) is in my genetic code I guess. This time my storm chase team is my dog Lilly while everyone else is back toasty and warm.  The snow is supposed to start tonight between 10 PM and midnight in western Maryland and will be heavy at times.

Around 7 PM a couple of thunderstorms rolled over the mountain. The first one left hail that prompted the video below. While I was uploading it, a second storm produced vivid lightning. I was able to capture that with another device… then decided to post that first. Sorry it was blurry. I am just glad I was able to get it to show you:

Here was the Doppler Radar scan of that storm. My location was in the blue circle:

Video: Lightning and hail just hours before expecting a few inches of snow

 

Snow Forecast Timeline —> slider

The surge of cold air is something you may have already seen today. It brought snow to the Wisconsin football game and lighting delaying the Michigan State game. Funny how I posted that online this afternoon only to meet it here this evening.

This is the HRRR Model showing rain changing to snow at Deep Creek Lake around 10 PM. I will go live on Facebook when the flakes start falling

 

How Much Snow?

This HRRR Model and the NAM 3 Km Model both agree on 2 to 4 inches in tis location by Sunday morning

 

 

Will There Be Stickage?

Based on the low temperatures in the 20s, I expect snow will stick. I was here for the first snow last October in a similar situation and the snow did accumulate a few inches then. This is more common here than you might imagine.

 

Wind Advisory

Oh, there is that wind issue too. Winds could gust to 50 mph in the mountains from Frederick westward, and on the Eastern Shore. Central Maryland is expected to be windy, but not at the threshold for an advisory.

 

Wind Chill

It will definitely feel like winter. Wind chills will be in the lower 20s. So when I show you snow, it will hurt a little. I packed accordingly.

 

New Report

The NOAA Winter Outlook may seem vague, but actually supports snow for our region

Also see:

Normal First Frost/Freeze Dates

NOAA Winter 2018-2019 Outlook Explained: This Actually Supports Snow

Will A Wet Summer Bring A Snowy Winter?

Winter Outlook From Two Different Farmers Almanacs

 

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