Monday October 22 2018

Temperatures this morning verify the Frost Advisory and Freeze Warning in place. Many areas in the 30s for many hours, so you might have ice to scrape or thaw off of your windshield. With sunshine and light winds, today will be nice and Tuesday will be the warmest day of the week. The focus will a storm developing out of the Gulf of Mexico set to hit us next weekend. Thoughts on that below.

Morning Temperatures

There are pockets of freezing temperatures around metro Baltimore and more across Virginia.

 

Frost Advisory/Freeze Warning

These expire at 10 AM but likely cancelled prior to that as the sun helps to thaw us out.

 

Local Weather Stats For October 22 in Baltimore

Average High:  65ºF

Record High: 85ºF in 1979

Average  Low: 43ºF

Record Low:  31ºF in 1952

Sunrise: 7:23 AM

Sunset 6:17 PM 

*Daylight = 2:24 shorter than yesterday 

*Bay Water Temperature = 64ºF at Thomas Pt. Light House 

 

Afternoon Temperatures 

Temperature Outlook

 

Weekend Storm?

Yes, but how bad? Both models here are plotting 2 PM Sat Oct 27:

GFS Model Farther EastICON Model Closer To The Coast

Have you heard about a strong Nor’Easter on the way?  This event has been on models for over a week already,  and I have not discussed it because it was too early. There here have already been changes. At one point this looked like a blizzard for inland New England and some snow into Maryland. That is not the case now. But like a winter storm, there is low confidence in forecasts more than one week away.  So I waited until now to show it to you.

Here is a look from two models. The wide view is from the GFS Model, which seems to be having trouble keeping the storm organized.  The second closer view is from the German ICON Model that is very similar to the European ECMWF (that has a copyright that limits showing their maps). This shows the track from the Gulf Coast to Virginia Beach similar to Hurricane Michael. There is part of my Atmospheric Memory. But this will turn more north… and it should bring us rain and wind next weekend.

 

GFS Model

Notice the track takes the Low Pressure center well east of Ocean City.

 

ICON Model 

This model has the Low Pressure Center closer passing over VA Beach and Ocean City. Timing for heavier rain is Saturday

 

 

Also see:

Normal First Frost/Freeze Dates

NOAA Winter 2018-2019 Outlook Explained: This Actually Supports Snow

Will A Wet Summer Bring A Snowy Winter?

Winter Outlook From Two Different Farmers Almanacs

 

FITF and SnowStix Stores are now OPEN

FITF Gear: Store Open Early By Request

Snowstix- We Need You To Measure Snow Too

We are giving 10% of each sale to Just In Power Kids: Providing FREE holistic care for pediatric oncology patients.

 

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