December 1 2018

Today not only starts the weekend but also the beginning of meteorological winter. We group the seasons in blocks of three full months.  This season starts wet with rain this afternoon and tonight, but dry and warmer Sunday. The pattern will change and we have consistency with a potential snow event next weekend. It is early, so I would take this as a chance to monitor daily, but don’t change your plans yet.

FITF – Special New Gift Idea

Before we get started today, I wanted to share something new: There was a lot of activity over the holiday weekend that I wanted offer the most popular combo as a gift idea. These Tees and hats go perfectly together, and grouping then will be discounted:

 

Local Weather Stats For December 1 in Baltimore

Climatological cooling shows we lose one degree on the high every two to three days this month.

Average High:  50ºF

Record High: 75ºF in 2006

Average  Low: 32ºF

Record Low:  12ºF in 1967

                         *Record Snow:  1.5″ in 1903

Sunrise: 7:07 AM

Sunset 4:43 PM 

*Daylight = 1:13 shorter than yesterday 

*Bay Water Temperature = 45ºF at Thomas Pt. Light House 

Record Rain Year Update:

The rain on Monday was 0.42″ at BWI. Considering the storm on the way this weekend and one month left in 2018, we may make a run for 70 inches.

 

Morning Snapshot

 

 

 

Rain Timeline –> slider

  • Rain showers will develop this afternoon. It will not be a washout, but you may get a cluster of a few hours at a time with rain.
  • Steady rain is likely overnight.
  • Total rain under 1/2 inch expected

 

Sunday Morning 

After a rainy night, we should begin to dry out around daybreak

 

Sunday Afternoon

It will be mild, but the NAM 3 Km Model is showing a slower climb up on the thermometer. There is a chance for 60s in central Maryland, but more likely in southern Maryland and Virginia.

 

Looking Ahead

Colder air will spill in mid week, but our chance of snow for December 5th has faded. However, there is consistency with a storm next weekend. This shows up on both the GFS Model and European ECMWF Models.

 

GFS Model Storm Animation

Friday Night through Sunday Night

 

Temperature Outlook

 

North Atlantic Oscillation

 

December 5th- FITF Day

Gather your friends and co-workers: Wear your #FITF gear to honor and celebrate this unique calendar holiday. This is the date almost every day last decade marked the first snow of each winter season.  I will have the history to show shortly.

FITF and SnowStix Stores are now OPEN

 

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Related Links:

Winter Outlook

My Winter Outlook 2018-19: Multiple Nor’Easters and more snow

Interactive Snow Report

November 15 Snow Reports- Interactive Map Compared To My Forecast

Winter Snow And Top 5 Wet Years 

Snowfall Seasons at Beginning and End of Top 5 Wet Years In Baltimore

 

Related Winter Outlooks

Tropical Hints At Winter Snow

Solar Cycle: When Sun Spots Are Low We Get More Snow

El Nino Modoki May Enhance Snow Chances

Sweet Spot: Hitting 70ºF on Halloween is followed by more winter snow

Will A Wet Summer Bring A Snowy Winter?

 

Winter Weather Folklore

NOAA Winter 2018-2019 Outlook Explained: This Actually Supports Snow

Winter Outlook From Two Different Farmers Almanacs

Maryland Winters: Snowfall Maps and Baltimore Snow History 

 

 

 

Snowstix- We Need You To Measure Snow Too

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