Friday January 11 2019

Regardless of how big or small a snow event is expected to be, I really like when there agreement among sources. I am one source and I show you many computer models. In addition, the National Weather Service is a group of meteorologists (still working during the government shutdown) putting out their forecast. We don’t always have the same outlook, but when we do I think it increases the message.

This morning I posted the Winter Storm Watch Map (see below). For metro areas, I expect a Winter Weather Advisory to be issued shortly. There may be some spot near Washington DC that could qualify for a warning with more snow. When that is issue depends on staffing at the NWS Office, but when you see it do not be surprised.

Confidence: High

I see we are in for a general 2 to 4 inches in central Maryland. There may be lower amounts north in PA and more in Southern Maryland.

The only adjustment I see could be overachieving IF the main storm on Sunday is better organized and closer.

 

Severity Index: New Experimental Product from NWS

I wanted to show this product and get your thoughts. This shows a large area of minor impact with some metro DC and southern Maryland in the Moderate range.  Considering The weekend timeframe AND expectation for 2 to 4 inches, I think the moderate impact area should be expanded.

The update snow simulation timelines are posted below..

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Snow Timeline Notes:

Saturday Afternoon:

Flurries or light snow. The onset between 2 and 4 PM west of the cities depends on how dry the air is. I see snow creeping in on radar, but it could be virga.

Saturday Evening:

Snowing in most areas around and after sunset. Maybe a few hours later in Southern PA.

Travel will be impacted and I expect many events will cancel. Snow will get heavier late evening and overnight.

Sunday Morning:

Most accumulation will be done central Maryland and north between sunrise and noon.

Some snow may linger later.

Southern Maryland will continue to get snow into the afternoon.

Sunday Night/Monday Morning

The only issue I see on roads will be late cleanup (some areas limit crews for cut down on overtime) and refreezing at night.

Here is a new product they posted this morning about their confidence and the impact.

Snow Simulation Saturday —> slider

 

Snow Simulation Sunday —> slider

 

Snow Total Forecast

 

This is close to my first call map I showed this morning. I went higher in the mountains and Southern Maryland.

My Call For Snowfall

 

  • A: 6 to 8 inches in the mountains
  • B: 3 to 6 inches Southern VA to southern MD. This range is due to any mixing or rain early, but more snow later. Coastal Areas will get rain, but end with a burst of snow. I included them in this zone with the chance to catch up at the finish. 
  • C: 2 to 4 inches. Metro Washington, Annapolis, Baltimore, to York PA
  • D: Dusting to 2 inches. These areas will be on the northern edge and dry air form the arctic high needs to be considered eroding away what falls.

 

NWS Snow Forecast

Agreement on 2 to 4 inches with southern Maryland and central VA int he 4 to 6 inch range.

 

Southern PA: General 2 inches expected

Snowstix- We Need You To Measure Snow Too

We are giving 10% of each sale to Just In Power Kids: Providing FREE holistic care for pediatric oncology patients.

Central VA may be the big winners

 

 

Winter Storm Threat

This is a new product from NWS. The higher confidence for impact is in the normal colder inland zones. But the impact all appears to be slight.

Personally I would suggest a moderate impact given it’s on the weekend and many areas in metro areas could be between 2 to 4 inches.

 

 

Winter Storm Watch: 

This will be update with Advisories and Warnings during the afternoon.

 

 

Snow Day Kit

NEW: Individual Items Are Now Available A La Carte.

Our ritual the night before a storm is finally in one kit. Maybe if more Maryland kids had this, the storm would reach us 🙂

  • This includes a very soft raglan Tee printed inside out with #FITF AND the check list,  #FITF spoon for under your pillow, ice cube tray with snowflake shapes, chalk, a #FITF wrist-band, a mini SnowStix, and a bag to carry it all in.
  • This will also help us give a free Snow Day Kit to each of the Just In Power Kids.

 

New Partner

I’d like to welcome Buchanan Kia of Westminster: Now a supporter of Just In Power Kids and Maryland Trek 6 in August 2019. Soon we will be showing you why we developed this relationship with a local business that my wife and I sincerely trust.

 

 

FITF and SnowStix Available NOW

 

Keep In Touch Every Day

Just in case you don’t get all posts on your social media feed, stay up to date with the latest info…

Click here to sign up for email alerts…. Be the first to hear any new weather forecasts

 

Please share your thoughts, best weather pics/video, or just keep in touch via social media

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Related Links:

Winter Outlook

My Winter Outlook 2018-19: Multiple Nor’Easters and more snow

Interactive Snow Report

November 15 Snow Reports- Interactive Map Compared To My Forecast

Winter Snow And Top 5 Wet Years 

Snowfall Seasons at Beginning and End of Top 5 Wet Years In Baltimore

 

Related Winter Outlooks

Tropical Hints At Winter Snow

Solar Cycle: When Sun Spots Are Low We Get More Snow

El Nino Modoki May Enhance Snow Chances

Sweet Spot: Hitting 70ºF on Halloween is followed by more winter snow

Will A Wet Summer Bring A Snowy Winter?

 

Winter Weather Folklore

NOAA Winter 2018-2019 Outlook Explained: This Actually Supports Snow

Winter Outlook From Two Different Farmers Almanacs

Maryland Winters: Snowfall Maps and Baltimore Snow History