Wednesday January 16 2019

There are two winter events on the way and both will be a mix of snow and rain across our region. The first system will arrive with some showers Thursday afternoon, but the bulk of the snow and ice will fall overnight. Since the freezing line will be split across our area, this is where we break out the geography and point to the normally colder inland areas west and north of I-95 for the likely impact Friday morning.

The timelines below should help to reinforce what I am thinking. You will find two sliders separating Thursday and Friday radar simulations.  Also look at the temperate on Friday morning, then compare the NAM Model snow map to my call for snowfall.

As for the second event this looks like rain for most Saturday night ending as snow Sunday with an abrupt cool down and flash freeze.  I will get into more on that system in my next report.


Thursday Radar Simulation –> slider

Showers may mix with sleet between 4 and 7 PM. Steadier snow will develop west and north of the cities but spread across the cities at night.

Evening Activities may need a last moment adjustment. The spread of early showers and any stickage before 8 PM Thursday is marginal. After that travel will be getting slippery in the snow zone.

The Freezing Line in purple is the best indication of possible road impact. Otherwise snow may stick in warmer areas just on the grass.

[metaslider id=71034]


Friday Morning Radar Simulation –> slider

[metaslider id=71051]


Temperatures Friday Morning


NAM Model Snowfall



My Call For Snowfall and Impact 




Notes: This may be the classic set up for impact on roads in the normally colder zones west and north of the main cities. I-95 is often the dividing line for freezing temperatures. As of now it appears there will be minimal to no impact in Southern Maryland.


The weekend appears to keep the blockbuster storm just north with central PA to New England in the heavy snow range. I will have more on that next.


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Related Links:

Winter Outlook

My Winter Outlook 2018-19: Multiple Nor’Easters and more snow

Interactive Snow Report

November 15 Snow Reports- Interactive Map Compared To My Forecast

Winter Snow And Top 5 Wet Years 

Snowfall Seasons at Beginning and End of Top 5 Wet Years In Baltimore


Related Winter Outlooks

Tropical Hints At Winter Snow

Solar Cycle: When Sun Spots Are Low We Get More Snow

El Nino Modoki May Enhance Snow Chances

Sweet Spot: Hitting 70ºF on Halloween is followed by more winter snow

Will A Wet Summer Bring A Snowy Winter?


Winter Weather Folklore

NOAA Winter 2018-2019 Outlook Explained: This Actually Supports Snow

Winter Outlook From Two Different Farmers Almanacs

Maryland Winters: Snowfall Maps and Baltimore Snow History