Wednesday January 16 2019

The second of the next two winter events will reach us later on Saturday and last the rest of the weekend. Sounds like a repeat of the last weekend, but this will be very different.  This time we will have a wintry mix and more importantly a Flash Freeze on Sunday to deal with. That is when temperatures drop so rapidly that road quickly ice up and travel will be dangerous. This is not hype, it is very likely, so please have some contingency in place for your Sunday plans.

I want to make sure you know I am sticking with my protocol and not giving a snow total forecast yet. But I will show you there models to help make my point. But first, here is what I think is the most important part of this storm:

Flash Freeze!

Quick Cast Notes:

  • Saturday afternoon or evening may bring in light snow or sleet at the start.
  • Saturday night into Sunday morning change to rain from south to north.
    • ICE may linger near the PA line or across southern PA. That extended icing is what the European Model shows. However the warming will be fighting north. We must consider more weight to the north push like last weekend’s event.
  • Sunday afternoon and evening it will get cold. FAST! Change to snow, but amounts are not know. NO ONE knows how much we will get since the timing of the change over is up for debate.

Regardless of how much snow we get, the temperatures will drop rapidly and deep into a freeze. So anything that is wet, even treated roads, they could freeze and make for tough travel in a hurry.


Sunday Temperatures

The European Model (ECMWF) is the most aggressive with the cold air on placement and timing. Here is shows the flash freeze mid day in central Maryland. Early evening on the lower eastern Shore.


  • 31ºF at 1 PM
  • 20ºF at 7 PM


  • 58ºF at 1 PM
  • 25ºF at 7 PM

Early Afternoon




Timing Of Snow Ice Rain and Refreeze

Here is a special look at the European simulation. Again, this is the most aggressive of the modeling today:

—> slider

[metaslider id=71066]


Models Don’t Agree On Timing or Snow Totals

Scroll the slider above to 1 PM Sunday and compare to the FV-FGS and Canadian Models here

Euro FV3 GFS


How Much Snow?


I don’t like snow total forecasting until within 72 hours of the event.  But here is a look at the spread among these three models.

  • Central and northern PA are likely to be in the 1 foot plus range. That is where it remains all snow.
  • Lower Susquenhanh Valley = Southern PA/York County has a big spread rom 2 to 8 inches below. I think this area may stay with more icing. If so, it could be extensive!
  • Central and southern MD: Change to snow will bring the flash freeze. Maybe a coating to a few inches in metro areas. This could all change if the change over is sooner. That would be if there is a southern push of the storm track.


Computer Model Snow Forecast Spread






My Snow Forecast:

Click here to see the first event Thursday Night/Friday Morning. 

My first call for weekend snowfall will be issued Thursday evening.


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Related Links:

Winter Outlook

My Winter Outlook 2018-19: Multiple Nor’Easters and more snow

Interactive Snow Report

November 15 Snow Reports- Interactive Map Compared To My Forecast

Winter Snow And Top 5 Wet Years 

Snowfall Seasons at Beginning and End of Top 5 Wet Years In Baltimore


Related Winter Outlooks

Tropical Hints At Winter Snow

Solar Cycle: When Sun Spots Are Low We Get More Snow

El Nino Modoki May Enhance Snow Chances

Sweet Spot: Hitting 70ºF on Halloween is followed by more winter snow

Will A Wet Summer Bring A Snowy Winter?


Winter Weather Folklore

NOAA Winter 2018-2019 Outlook Explained: This Actually Supports Snow

Winter Outlook From Two Different Farmers Almanacs

Maryland Winters: Snowfall Maps and Baltimore Snow History