Wednesday January 16 2019

We are in the middle of what is normally the coldest part of winter, but this year we are just seeing the beginning. There are two weather systems on the way that will be followed by one arctic blast early next week. High Pressure is coming from the Arctic Circle to settle to our south and you will feel it! But that will be followed by the fractured Polar Vortex to end the month and make it more brutal cold at the end of January. That would be a headline itself.

But before we can look that far ahead, we need to take a look at two weather events on the way. I have stayed away from the hype as the system appears to be inland and taking the rain line north. That means we will have snow and rain mixing at various times.  Our northern areas will have some travel concerns Friday morning, but I think the more widespread potential icing will be at the end of the weekend region wide.

Quick Cast:

Event 1

  • Today: Cold with increasing clouds
  • Thursday: Light snow or sleet showers afternoon.
  • Thursday night: Snow north, mix to rain south. Totals only about 1″

Event 2

  • Saturday: Afternoon snow or mix
  • Saturday night: Change to rain from south to north
  • Sunday: Rain will ABRUPTLY turn to snow after noon. FLASH FREEZE likely on roads.
  • Monday: Arctic Cold = Deep Freeze!


Local Weather Stats For January 16, 2019 in Baltimore

*Second day of Record Heat Wave for January*

Average High:  41ºF

Record High: 71ºF in 1953

Average  Low: 24ºF

Record Low:  1ºF in 1893

                         *Record Snow:  7.0 in 1945

Sunrise: 7:24 AM

Sunset 5:08 PM 

*Daylight = 1:28 longer than yesterday 

*Bay Water Temperature = 37ºF at Thomas Pt. Light House 



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Morning Temps

Deep freeze and some icy spots this morning.

Afternoon Temps

We will thaw today, but more clouds afternoon will make it feel chilly.


Thursday Morning

Back into the freeze


Thursday Afternoon Snow/Sleet

The arrival of the next event may actually have some showers a few hours head… During the late afternoon.  Please notice the freezing line is around I-95. So inland has a better chance for any problems.


Snow/Rain Simulation —> slider

Thursday night into Friday morning.

[metaslider id=70952]


Friday Morning Temperatures 

The freezing zone will be near Baltimore and north/west. The snow will be light, but the frozen ground may add to stickage potential and slick road impacts for the morning commute.

Event 1 Animation

Thursday evening to Friday morning 


Event 2

Saturday afternoon to Sunday Evening


Event 2 Weekend Storm –> slider

[metaslider id=70973]


Snow Totals?

I will start posting a look at that tomorrow. It is not only earlier than I usually do, but the higher totals will be to the north. I think the main issue will be the abrupt drop in temperatures and flash freeze.


Arctic Cold Surge

Behind the weekend event, Monday temps will likely remain in the teens or colder.

Notice the mild trend mid week. That is just as the atmosphere relaxes ahead of the next big change and the fractured Polar Vortex.


Long Range Outlook

This upper level animation shows the jet stream. The blue shading is where the cold arctic air settles in. As you can see, the last few images the Polar Vortex drops south and cold air invades the entire eastern US


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Related Links:

Winter Outlook

My Winter Outlook 2018-19: Multiple Nor’Easters and more snow

Interactive Snow Report

November 15 Snow Reports- Interactive Map Compared To My Forecast

Winter Snow And Top 5 Wet Years 

Snowfall Seasons at Beginning and End of Top 5 Wet Years In Baltimore


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Tropical Hints At Winter Snow

Solar Cycle: When Sun Spots Are Low We Get More Snow

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Winter Weather Folklore

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Maryland Winters: Snowfall Maps and Baltimore Snow History