Thursday January 17 2019
The snow event on the way will arrive this evening with most falling overnight. The Winter Weather Advisory in place has been expanded south to now include Baltimore, Annapolis, and Washington DC. Nothing has changed with the forecast. I have two model timeline simulations below to show you both the snow and temperatures.
One factor that needs to be considered… Some ground surfaces might be frozen. So even with snow or a windy mix falling in southern zones while the air is above freezing, the colder ground may support stickage and or icing.
Want School Delays?
I think a delay is the best we can get on Friday Morning. I am doing my FITF STEM program at Ring Factory ES today. The faculty told me Harford County has early dismissal Friday. If there is a delay, then they end up with a full day of school. Ironic, because 136 people in this school are wearing FITF shirts now.
Winter Weather Advisory
Most areas have this until 4 AM Friday
Snow Simulations: Two Models To Compare
HRRR Model —> slider
The first wave of snow showers will be on the north side this evening. It may be enough to impact late activities and I expect some schools may cancel them. The main snow will be after 10 PM and end between 2 and 4 AM Friday.
Temperatures (When The Snow Ends)
NAM 3 Km Model
This product has the freezing line, which I highlighted. This tells us the best chance for icy roads to the north. But we need to consider the cold ground for the rest of the Winter Weather Advisory area
Simulation —> slider
Temperatures: Will Thaw
I expect that if there are school delays, that is all that will be needed. Temps will be rising during the morning and all will be above freezing during the day
My Call for Snowfall:
This was my original forecast and it remains… The area shaded in white was added to the Winter Weather Advisory. That is where it should still be above freezing, but the cold ground might support stickage.
NAM Model Snowfall
My Next Update Will Be This Evening
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