Friday January 18 2019

This is update is from Friday evening, with confirmation of my earlier forecast for the northern zones. This is a complex storm and we will be on the southern edge of the first round of wintry impact. Snow and sleet showers may start later Saturday morning, but it will be afternoon and evening that cause road problems. This should be reserved for the normally colder spots. However problems may linger longer in those northern areas overnight Saturday.

Quick Storm Notes

The warnings and advisories matches up with my forecast map. I will show that below, but there is some important info I want to get to first.

The problem is that there is already snow the ground and computer models do not handle cold air well. I have been saying two things about this storm that I stand by:

  • Icing may last longer Saturday Night. This is due to cold air often holding longer and I will show you an example how the models are having trouble.
  • Sunday’s Flash Freeze is more important than the snow amounts. In fact it looks like not much left for snow in the arctic air. But the freeze will happen faster.

 

Road Travel Restrictions

PennDOT in Pennsylvania has already banned commercial travel starting Saturday. MDOT in Maryland is requesting all people try to stay off the roads Sunday to allow for chemical treatment as it gets cold!

 

My Forecast Outlook

The only adjustment I made was to take out the snow with the arctic air on Sunday.

Forecast timeline maps are below

 

 


New Partner

Buchanan Kia of Westminster is a supporter of Just In Power Kids and Maryland Trek 6 in August 2019.


 

When Will It Begin?

Some flurries or light showers may arrive between 10 AM and Noon. But don’t expect stickage to be an issue then

 

Temperatures:

Metro areas will be just above barely freezing. But remaining colder in the Winter Storm Warning Zone

 

Saturday Snow/Ice/Thaw Timeline –> slider

Note the Freezing Line moving north. However, the temperature map below shows many areas I circled will still be within a degree of freezing.

 

Temperature at Midnight

May areas will be within a degree of freezing.

This may be a set up with warmer air on hill tops, but colder air remains trapped in valleys. Ice can linger many hours longer than models often show.

 

Snow and Ice Forecast from NWS for Maryland/Virginia, and Pennsylvania 

Snow Forecast Has Lowered

 

Ice Forecast Is Enough To Take Down Trees/Power Lines

 

 

Pennsylvania

The Snow and Ice forecast over the line in Adams, York, and Lancaster Counties do not match the NWS forecast in Maryland. The offices appear to not be coordinating their efforts.

Snow Forecast 

 

Ice Forecast Seems Too Low

 

SnowStix

We are being featured on The Weather Channel this weekend, Jim Cantore has a personalized Thudersnow Whisperer. Check it out as he reports from Boston.

We have added a bunch of new color options

We are giving 10% of each sale to Just In Power Kids: Providing FREE holistic care for pediatric oncology patients.

 

Sunday Rain And Flash Freeze Timeline –> slider

Flash Freeze begins in the morning west of the cities. 

Not much moisture left with the cold air. But the freezing line will catch up to the rain as it races across the bay.

 

Temperatures

Sunday Morning: Freeze Reaches West/North Zones

 

Sunday at Noon: Freeze Reaches The Cities

 

Sunday Afternoon: Freeze Reaches Southern Maryland And The Beaches

 

Midnight: Ouch!

 

Monday Morning: Just Stay Inside

 

Wind Chill: Nothing Else Needed To Be Said

 

 

 

 

FITF and SnowStix Available NOW

 

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Related Links:

Winter Outlook

My Winter Outlook 2018-19: Multiple Nor’Easters and more snow

Interactive Snow Report

November 15 Snow Reports- Interactive Map Compared To My Forecast

Winter Snow And Top 5 Wet Years 

Snowfall Seasons at Beginning and End of Top 5 Wet Years In Baltimore

 

Related Winter Outlooks

Tropical Hints At Winter Snow

Solar Cycle: When Sun Spots Are Low We Get More Snow

El Nino Modoki May Enhance Snow Chances

Sweet Spot: Hitting 70ºF on Halloween is followed by more winter snow

Will A Wet Summer Bring A Snowy Winter?

 

Winter Weather Folklore

NOAA Winter 2018-2019 Outlook Explained: This Actually Supports Snow

Winter Outlook From Two Different Farmers Almanacs

Maryland Winters: Snowfall Maps and Baltimore Snow History