Saturday Afternoon January 19 2019
I hope you read my morning post and saw my notes on the track more north and thus warmer storm. There will still be some snow and ice tonight, but it will not be a prevalent since warmer air is in place. This north shift is the sam as the prior events and should have been expected. I have new radar simulations and temperature timelines below to assist your plans. There will be an initial push of snow and sleet with brief coverage on the roads. But warmer air will win out tonight. Not tomorrow.
UPDATE SUNDAY MORNING
Good Sunday Morning Jan 20: It’s Flash Freeze Day along with Advisories for Winds gusting to 50 mph and Wind Chills below zero. Heavy rain is departing but anything wet should ice up within an hour as temps tank fast below 32ºF. Here is a look at the latest temps and hourly temp forecast plus more. We could do this again Thursday. Click the image for the latest forecast
My expectation has been echoed by the National Weather Service as they have adjusted the warnings and advisories on the southern edge of this system.
Winter Weather Advisory
- Removed/Cancelled for all areas near I-95 and the Chesapeake Bay. This includes Harford, Southern Baltimore Co and City, Howard, and Montgomery Counties in Maryland.
- Adjusted for central Maryland (inland/North and West) Counties. These areas were formally under a Winter Storm Warning
Winter Storm Warning: Cancelled in southern PA. Just after publishing this post, NWS dropped the warning and now all of southern PA is under a Winter Weather Advisory. This fits the warming I have been showing.
New: Wind Advisory! All of our region from Sunday 11 AM to 7 PM. Winds 20 to 30 mph will gust to 50 mph
Quick Storm Notes
- Snow and sleet will develop over the next few hours
- Temperatures are above freezing for most of our area.
- Moderate snow or ice rates for a few hours may cause some stickage on roads in the advisory and warning zone.
- Overnight: Rain will be heavy. Total 1 to 2 inches.
- Sunday morning: Rain ends then temps drop fast.
- Flash Freeze: Rapid cooling and soggy ground freezes quickly.
NWS Airport Weather Stations all showing above freezing
Local Weather Stations also all showing above freezing
Buchanan Kia of Westminster is a supporter of Just In Power Kids and Maryland Trek 6 in August 2019.
Radar at 2 PM
Radar Simulation—> slider
Notice that evening in southern PA the model is hard pressed to find freezing temperatures.
Take Away From This: Brief Moderate to Heavy Snow or sleet may stick on the roads. But decent treatment should thaw quickly. We all thaw overnight.
10 PM to Midnight may be the coldest time for Southern PA with moderate Snow or Mix falling.
Sunday 2 AM: Our Region will be thawed and under HEAVY RAIN
The FV3-GFS Model shows the movement of the storm. Here is suggests we may have some snow on the back end Sunday. The main issue will be strong winds and the rapidly falling temperatures. Flash Freeze means that anything wet may ice up very quickly.
Sunday Mid Day
- The NAM has us dry when the colder air arrives.
- The Freezing line is expected to cross Baltimore and Washington between noon and 1 PM
Temperature Drop = Flash Freeze
Anything still wet can freeze within an hour. That means wet pavement can get icy very fast.
I will have an hour by hour temperature timeline in my next report.
We are being featured on The Weather Channel this weekend, Jim Cantore has a personalized Thudersnow Whisperer. Check it out as he reports from Boston.
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Sunday Midnight: Ouch!
Monday Morning: Just Stay Inside
Wind Chill: Nothing Else Needed To Be Said
FITF and SnowStix Available NOW
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