Wednesday February 6 2019

It might be hard to imagine after reaching 71ºF in Baltimore yesterday, but winter is still here. A cold front has dropped south and will be stalling over our region for a few days. This has brought a chill back in the air today and will bring rain showers by this evening. Showers we linger through Friday, but the big shock might be the return of snow next week. However history has proven in recent years but all through the record books that big winter warm up is often followed by snow within a week or two.

Morning Weather Map


Morning Temperatures Map



Local Weather Stats For February 6, 2019 in Baltimore

Average High:  43ºF

Record High: 72ºF in 2008

Average  Low: 25ºF

Record Low:  1ºF in 1895

                         *Record Snow:  16.0″ in 2010 (25″ in two days)

Sunrise: 7:08 AM

Sunset 5:32 PM 

*Daylight = 2:12 longer than yesterday 

*Bay Water Temperature = 35ºF at Thomas Pt. Light House 


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Afternoon High Temperatures


Rain Timeline —> slider

Showers in the mountains will spread east today. Northern counties may get some rain this afternoon. Most metro areas turn wet tonight.

[metaslider id=72593]


Rain Animation

The bulk of the rain will be tonight, but showers will linger through Friday.


Snow Next Week:

Snow is showing up early next week on many models. But, the timing is not agreed upon. I have seen this many times, where the physics support ‘something’ but when is still uncertain. That is why I am showing two models with snow a day apart. I would expect to see snow in the range between Monday and Wednesday. There is support that it will be longer event, that could mix with ice.

The European Model shows snow developing Monday and lasting into Tuesday then dancing to freezing rain into Wednesday.


The FV3- GFS is a day later

This shows snow developing Tuesday into Wednesday with the change over to freezing rain


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Temperature Outlook

The European Model shows highs above freezing Monday and Tuesday, but look at the lows. I see snow and remaining below freezing most of Monday into most of Tuesday… then the attempt of warmer air to move in later Tuesday into Wednesday.

Note: It is too early to lock into specifics. This is just an idea and a gauge to compare any model trends against. We have a benchmark to work from.



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FITF and SnowStix 


Related Links:

Winter Outlook

My Winter Outlook 2018-19: Multiple Nor’Easters and more snow

Interactive Snow Report

November 15 Snow Reports- Interactive Map Compared To My Forecast

Winter Snow And Top 5 Wet Years 

Snowfall Seasons at Beginning and End of Top 5 Wet Years In Baltimore


Related Winter Outlooks

Tropical Hints At Winter Snow

Solar Cycle: When Sun Spots Are Low We Get More Snow

El Nino Modoki May Enhance Snow Chances

Sweet Spot: Hitting 70ºF on Halloween is followed by more winter snow

Will A Wet Summer Bring A Snowy Winter?


Winter Weather Folklore

NOAA Winter 2018-2019 Outlook Explained: This Actually Supports Snow

Winter Outlook From Two Different Farmers Almanacs

Maryland Winters: Snowfall Maps and Baltimore Snow History