Thursday February 7 2019

We are still on the cool side of this frontal boundary, but it is trying to move back north. The result will bring some light scattered showers, but most of the day will be dry. While there will be some warmer air tomorrow morning, we will cool back down this weekend. Then we set the stage for a new winter weather event.  I do have FITF for more snow, but the way this will play out is still uncertain. What I do believe is that we need to expect some impact from snow Sunday night into Monday and then more snow and ice on Tuesday.


Daily Weather Highlights

Maps for these events are below.

  • Today: Mostly dry, just a few showers. Temps bear 50ºF
  • Friday: High temps by noon. Mid day rain, then cooling
  • Weekend: Mostly dry and cooler
  • Sunday night into Monday: Some light snow
  • Monday evening into Tuesday: Snow mixing to ice then rain

Is it too early to get excited for a winter storm?

  • This thing has not formed yet! So the location and timing is up for debate.
  • Agreement: Some snow Monday, but then more impact snow and ice on Tuesday.
  • The timing of the heavier snow, ice, and rain I what is not locked in yet.
  • Check out this contrast and see the maps below


This shows the largest snow impact by sunrise Tuesday. Then rain Tuesday afternoon.

1 AM Tue 1 PM Tue


This model shows the storm developing Tuesday afternoon and night.


See more maps below


Local Weather Stats For February 7, 2019 in Baltimore

Average High:  43ºF

Record High: 72ºF in 2017

Average  Low: 25ºF

Record Low:  6ºF in 1895

                         *Record Snow:  10.1″ in 1967 

Sunrise: 7:07 AM

Sunset 5:33 PM 

*Daylight = 2:14 longer than yesterday 

*Bay Water Temperature = 36ºF at Thomas Pt. Light House 


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Buchanan Kia of Westminster is a supporter of Just In Power Kids and Maryland Trek 6 in August 2019.


Morning Snapshot


That front really stands out….

  • 30s in PA
  • 40s in central MD
  • 50s in VA and WV

Morning Radar Loop

Radar Simulation —> slider

[metaslider id=72618]


Afternoon High Temps





Skipping To The Storm

Compare the timing of snow, ice, and rain between the European (ECMWF) and American Model (FV3-GFS)

How Much? It is too early for anyone to suggest how much we could get. Especially since the timing, track, and transition to ice and snow are not certain.

I would still keep your plans in mind to possibly be affected Sunday night into Tuesday night.


European Model —> slider

This model shows light snow Sunday night and Monday. Then the main storm Tuesday morning turning to rain Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday.

[metaslider id=72637]


Storm Animation: FV3- GFS

This model shows the snow and ice just developing on Tuesday, then turn to rain by Wednesday morning.



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Temperature Outlook


Friday’s high temperature should be before noon.

Monday and Tuesday: The model shows highs above freezing, but look at the lows at 31ºF. Looking deeper, this model supports the snow with colder temps Monday night into mid day Tuesday. So the highs are before and after the snow portion shown in the slider above.



Temperature Trend: GFS Model

Even with some mild surges, there is plenty of cold air waiting to return. Valentine’s Day looks to start another cold spell.


Please share your thoughts, best weather pics/video, or just keep in touch via social media


FITF and SnowStix 


Related Links:

Winter Outlook

My Winter Outlook 2018-19: Multiple Nor’Easters and more snow

Interactive Snow Report

November 15 Snow Reports- Interactive Map Compared To My Forecast

Winter Snow And Top 5 Wet Years 

Snowfall Seasons at Beginning and End of Top 5 Wet Years In Baltimore


Related Winter Outlooks

Tropical Hints At Winter Snow

Solar Cycle: When Sun Spots Are Low We Get More Snow

El Nino Modoki May Enhance Snow Chances

Sweet Spot: Hitting 70ºF on Halloween is followed by more winter snow

Will A Wet Summer Bring A Snowy Winter?


Winter Weather Folklore

NOAA Winter 2018-2019 Outlook Explained: This Actually Supports Snow

Winter Outlook From Two Different Farmers Almanacs

Maryland Winters: Snowfall Maps and Baltimore Snow History