Friday February 8 2019

There are showers and some fog to start this Friday, and this morning may be the warmest part of the day. A cold front will be moving through later this morning across metro Baltimore. A little later for the Delmarva. The winds will shift, and temperatures will hold steady or drop this afternoon. Then much colder air on the way this weekend. This will set up a two part winter event for Monday and Tuesday.

I’ve packed a lot of maps below to help break this down.  I will have more details on the storm beginning in my evening report.

 

 

Daily Weather Highlights

Maps for these events are below.

  • Today: Morning showers. Temps falling this afternoon.
  • Weekend: Mostly dry and cooler. Saturday may stay below freezing for most of the region. Wind chills in the teens and 20s.
  • Sunday overnight into Monday Morning: Some light snow.
  • Monday evening into Tuesday: Snow mixing to ice then rain

Is it too early to get excited for a winter storm?

  • This thing has not formed yet! So the location and timing is up for debate.
  • Agreement: Some snow Monday, but then more impact snow and ice on Tuesday.
  • The timing of the heavier snow, ice, and rain I what is not locked in yet.
  • Check out this contrast and see the maps below

Euro

This shows two impact times:

  • Monday morning mainly north of Rt 50. Then thawing.
  • Tuesday morning. The second event could lead to more ice into the afternoon and evening in the colder northern counties.
7 AM Mon7 AM Tue

 

Canadian GEM

This models shows the impact from snow extended farther south to include metro Washington, Annapolis, and Southern Maryland.

See more maps below

 

Local Weather Stats For February 8, 2019 in Baltimore

Average High:  43ºF

Record High: 72ºF in 2017 (records two days in a row)

Average  Low: 26ºF

Record Low:  6ºF in 1895

                         *Record Snow:  6.3″ in 1974 

Sunrise: 7:06 AM

Sunset 5:35 PM 

*Daylight = 2:15 longer than yesterday 

*Bay Water Temperature = 36ºF at Thomas Pt. Light House 

 

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New Partner

Buchanan Kia of Westminster is a supporter of Just In Power Kids and Maryland Trek 6 in August 2019.


 

Morning Radar Loop

 

Cold Front Arrives Late Morning

 

Temperatures

Morning

 

Afternoon

Colder Weekend

This is important to cool the ground down after our recent warm week. After the weekend, any snow or ice that falls will have a better chance for stickage

Saturday Morning

Saturday Afternoon

 

Two Part Storm:

The accepted solution now: Light snow may impact Monday morning. Then a break and maybe a thaw, followed by a second round of snow and ice Monday night into Tuesday.

  • Freezing line? How far south may be impacted is still up for debate. If you are near or north of Rt 50, there is better reasons to expect an impact. Metro Washington, Annapolis, and southern Maryland to Delmarva should watch updates for any wiggle room.
  • Ice Lingers Longer: Colder zones NorthWest of Baltimore may hold the ice longer into Tuesday. Models often bring in a thaw too early with this type of set up.
  • How Much Snow? It is too early to say, especially since we don’t have a lock on the freezing line or transition from snow to ice.

 

Storm Animation

The Canadian Model shows more impact farther south.

 

 

European Model —> slider

This shows the freezing line closer to Rt 50. Notice the ice lingering longer in northern Maryland and southern PA Tuesday evening.

 

New Colors

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Temperature Outlook

Notes:

Monday and Tuesday: The model shows highs above freezing, but look at the lows at 31ºF. Looking deeper, this model supports the snow with colder temps Monday night into mid day Tuesday. So the highs are before and after the snow portion shown in the slider above.

Warm up after Valentines Day, then colder again.

 

 

Please share your thoughts, best weather pics/video, or just keep in touch via social media

 

FITF and SnowStix 

 

Related Links:

Winter Outlook

My Winter Outlook 2018-19: Multiple Nor’Easters and more snow

Interactive Snow Report

November 15 Snow Reports- Interactive Map Compared To My Forecast

Winter Snow And Top 5 Wet Years 

Snowfall Seasons at Beginning and End of Top 5 Wet Years In Baltimore

 

Related Winter Outlooks

Tropical Hints At Winter Snow

Solar Cycle: When Sun Spots Are Low We Get More Snow

El Nino Modoki May Enhance Snow Chances

Sweet Spot: Hitting 70ºF on Halloween is followed by more winter snow

Will A Wet Summer Bring A Snowy Winter?

 

Winter Weather Folklore

NOAA Winter 2018-2019 Outlook Explained: This Actually Supports Snow

Winter Outlook From Two Different Farmers Almanacs

Maryland Winters: Snowfall Maps and Baltimore Snow History