Sunday February 10 2019

A two part winter weather event is about to unfold over our region. The timing spreads from snow arriving tonight to Tuesday when rain finally overtakes the entire region. In between there will be a wide variety of weather conditions. Light snow is expected to have some impact for Monday Morning. Then a break, followed by a second round of snow and then icing with freezing rain Monday evening into Tuesday. Some ares south of Baltimore will turn to rain sooner, but north and west of the city will get additional snow and longer icing.

Winter Weather Advisory

Part 1- Tonight into Monday Morning

This updated map now includes southern PA in the Winter Weather Advisory. All of the ares on the map are for the first part of this ‘event’. Please keep in mind that there will be a second part Monday night into Tuesday. That may be confusing based on the timing here alone:

Compare the NWS Snow Maps to the model forecasts below.

 

How Much Snow?

These Maps Only Include Up To Monday Morning

The National Weather Service zone forecasts have many areas north of Washington/Annapolis (Rt 50) with 1 to 2 inches by Monday morning. This fits with the NAM  Km Model forecast I had shown in prior posts.

 

 

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NAM 3 Km Model —-> slider

 

Snow from Round 1

Notice much of central Maryland south of Baltimore don’t show much. This is where a slushy mix is expected and should rise to freezing before dawn.

The surge of 2″+ as this moves east from Baltimore, Harford, and Cecil Co in Maryland… into DE and Southern NJ.

 

FITF and SnowStix 

 

Part 2 Monday Evening Into Tuesday

This will be a case to check back frequently. The freezing line will be draped across our area but a shift of 30 to 50 miles can change the impact for about 1 million people.

This is where it gets more complicated. After some daytime warming, snow and ice are expected to redevelop Monday evening and night. The European Model supports that here. However, there has been a trend all season for storms to verify north. That could shift the freezing line north as well. This may be why the advisories for the second part have been left out for now.

 

Complete Storm Tracking

European (ECWMF) —-> slider 

 

My Call Again

Storm Notes:

The snow will be a minor impact on Monday morning.

The transition zone will be between Washington and Baltimore. This region will be within one to two degrees of freezing. That will make or break if there is impact on the roads.

The biggest impact will be snow and icing Monday night into Tuesday morning!

Faster change to rain along and south of I-95

Longer snow and ice impact northwest of the big cities.

  • Nearby NW suburbs likely 2″ to 4″ snow is expected. That would be up to 1″ to 2″ of snow from each each round.
  • Farther northwest encircled in white could get 5″+. That is potential, not a promise. That would be up to 2″ from round 1 AND 3″ from round 2 before mixing to ice.
  • In Maryland: Northern Harford, northern Baltimore, Carroll, western Howard, Frederick, and Washington Counties
  • Southern Pennsylvania: including Adams, York, and Lancaster Counties.

 

 

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Related Links:

Winter Outlook

My Winter Outlook 2018-19: Multiple Nor’Easters and more snow

Interactive Snow Report

November 15 Snow Reports- Interactive Map Compared To My Forecast

Winter Snow And Top 5 Wet Years 

Snowfall Seasons at Beginning and End of Top 5 Wet Years In Baltimore

 

Related Winter Outlooks

Tropical Hints At Winter Snow

Solar Cycle: When Sun Spots Are Low We Get More Snow

El Nino Modoki May Enhance Snow Chances

Sweet Spot: Hitting 70ºF on Halloween is followed by more winter snow

Will A Wet Summer Bring A Snowy Winter?

 

Winter Weather Folklore

NOAA Winter 2018-2019 Outlook Explained: This Actually Supports Snow

Winter Outlook From Two Different Farmers Almanacs

Maryland Winters: Snowfall Maps and Baltimore Snow History