Sunday February 10 2019

Snow will arrive tonight and impact much of our area Monday morning. The cold temperatures have chilled the ground enough to allow for stickage. The first wave tonight should be light, but enough to impact travel Monday morning. The storm is still developing and may enhance on top of us, making for some pushing of moderate snow in the morning. But also some warming during the day, then a second push of snow and ice Monday night and Tuesday.

A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for:

  • Much of central Maryland, including metro DC/Annapolis to the PA line.
  • northern Virginia, northern Delaware, metro Philadelphia, southern New Jersey.
  • Southern PA: No Advisory yet??? NWS State College PA should issue an advisory or Winter Storm Warning soon. It is up to them, not me.

 

Due to the confusion from NWS, I am showing my call first to elaborate. See the forecast maps below

My Call For Snow and Ice

Southern PA and northern Maryland will be in the cold zone the longest. This includes snow tonight into Monday morning. Then snow Monday night to wintry mix to ice lasting into Tuesday afternoon or evening.  This is where I expect the most snow and ice. As of this time, the area encircled in the white line are most likely to get over 5 inches of snow.

Storm Notes:

The snow will be a minor impact on Monday morning.

The transition zone will be between Washington and Baltimore. This region will be within one to two degrees of freezing. That will make or break if there is impact on the roads.

The biggest impact will be snow and icing Monday night into Tuesday morning!

Faster change to rain along and south of I-95

Longer snow and ice impact northwest of the big cities.

  • Nearby NW suburbs likely 2″ to 4″ snow is expected. Farther northwest encircled in white could get 5″+. That is potential, not a promise.
  • In Maryland: Northern Harford, northern Baltimore, Carroll, western Howard, Frederick, and Washington Counties
  • Southern Pennsylvania: including Adams, York, and Lancaster Counties.

Forecast Maps are below, first here is the set up

 

 

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Morning Maps

Temperatrues

Many teens and 20s helped to chill the ground to support stickage later

Surface Weather

The storm is still forming, but looking more like an event with snow and ice across the nation’s midsection.

Satellite Loop 

 

 

When Will The Snow Arrive?

HRRR Model- First Flakes

  • Northern zones may get the snow after 8 PM
  • Central Maryland more likely after 10 PM

 

NAM 3 Km Model —-> slider

 

Temperatures Monday Morning 

 

Snow from Round 1

Notice much of central Maryland south of Baltimore don’t show much. This is where a slushy mix is expected and should rise to freezing before dawn.

The surge of 2″+ as this moves east from Baltimore, Harford, and Cecil Co in Maryland… into DE and Southern NJ.

 

FITF and SnowStix 

 

Complete Storm Tracking

European (ECWMF) —-> slider 

 

My Call Again

 

 

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Related Links:

Winter Outlook

My Winter Outlook 2018-19: Multiple Nor’Easters and more snow

Interactive Snow Report

November 15 Snow Reports- Interactive Map Compared To My Forecast

Winter Snow And Top 5 Wet Years 

Snowfall Seasons at Beginning and End of Top 5 Wet Years In Baltimore

 

Related Winter Outlooks

Tropical Hints At Winter Snow

Solar Cycle: When Sun Spots Are Low We Get More Snow

El Nino Modoki May Enhance Snow Chances

Sweet Spot: Hitting 70ºF on Halloween is followed by more winter snow

Will A Wet Summer Bring A Snowy Winter?

 

Winter Weather Folklore

NOAA Winter 2018-2019 Outlook Explained: This Actually Supports Snow

Winter Outlook From Two Different Farmers Almanacs

Maryland Winters: Snowfall Maps and Baltimore Snow History