Monday February 11 2019

The trend has been colder and that is the theme we stick with now. The Winter Weather Advisory in place has been expanded a little farther south, but I still think even more areas outside of those on the map will be impacted by additional snow and ice tonight. The Winter Storm Warning is for general areas north and west of I-81.

UPDATED Tuesday Morning:  

Click to see the lingering ice in the Maryland and PA Winter Storm Warning zones. Slow Thaw and 2 more storms in the next week

The most important message I can post now is this: Roads will get more icy as it gets dark. Places on the edge of freezing will ice up between 4 and 6 PM. Then the freezing line should drop farther south this evening as shown in the temperature maps below.

I think snow amounts may be close to doubled before more freezing rain. There will also be some snow and ice impacting south of this zone, which I will highlight in the radar simulations and temperature maps below.

As for schools, I think the plan will repeat: If yours were closed today, there is a good chance they will be tomorrow. If they were delayed today, a good change they are delayed as well.

Winter Weather Advisory

  • Expanded areas now include ALL of Harford,western Howard, and Montgomery, until 10 AM Tuesday morning.
  • Newly Added: Southern Baltimore County, Baltimore City,  eastern Howard, eastern Montgomery until 7 AM Tuesday morning.
  • Kent County joins Cecil County on Delmarva AND extended until 6 PM Tuesday evening.

 

 

Personal Note:

Thank you for your patience as my web site has some issues in the past 24 hours. It should be able to handle to traffic spikes, but I am looking to improve the design and delivery to make reading my notes and maps much easier.

Current Set Up

The warming above freezing is on schedule. Snow remains paling on the north side, mixing with sleet at times between Finksburg and Towson to White Marsh.  More sleet or rain south to BWI. Then all rain between Washington and Annapolis. It will turn colder over the next few hours.

Quick Cast:

  • If you have snow or sleet still falling, expect roads to get icy again after 4 PM (as the sun angle gets low)
  • If you has snow or ice this morning, plan for possible wintry mix and some icing after 6 PM.
  • If you just had rain or thawed roads this morning, then you will likely stay just wet.

 

Scroll down for new weather maps below

 

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Temperature Drop this Evening

Please considerer how a few degrees and loss of daylight can quickly turn wet surfaces icy again between 4 PM and 6 PM

 

Radar Simulation 4 PM to 11 PM Today —> slider

Notice the sharp cutoff near I-70 and Baltimore

 

 

 

Radar Simulation Midnight To 5 AM Tuesday —> slider

Ice and Freezing will develop and drop south. This will include the western side of Baltimore and may drop to northern Montgomery County.

 

Morning Temperatures 

  • If your schools were closed this morning, a very good chance they are closed again.
  • If they were delayed this morning, a very good chance they will be delayed again.
  • Anne Arundel and metro Washington might be the difference and remain wet.

 

Additional Snowfall- HRRR Model

Northern zones 2 to 4 inches. Where it has stayed snow, their full event total should be over 5 inches.

Baltimore 1 to 2 inches. All areas turn to sleet and freezing rain before sunrise

 

Additional Snowfall- NAM 3K Model

Similar placement of 2 to 4 new inches. Where it has stayed snow, their full event total should be over 5 inches.

Up to 1 in Baltimore. These places should turn back to ice before sunrise.

 

Tuesday Ice Expectation:

Daybreak:

Expect ice in the typical areas just north and west of I-95/Baltimore. Schools likely delayed or closed again.

 

Noon:

The ice line will slowly retreat to the north. These often do not behave as models suggest, so its possible to remain icy longer.

 

Late Afternoon:

Most of the region should be thawing, but some pockets of colder air may linger… including the Hereford Zone.

 

 

 

My Original Snow Call Again

I think this is holding up pretty well.

Storm Notes:

The snow will be a minor impact on Monday morning.

The transition zone will be between Washington and Baltimore. This region will be within one to two degrees of freezing. That will make or break if there is impact on the roads.

The biggest impact will be snow and icing Monday night into Tuesday morning!

Faster change to rain along and south of I-95

Longer snow and ice impact northwest of the big cities.

  • Nearby NW suburbs likely 2″ to 4″ snow is expected. That would be up to 1″ to 2″ of snow from each each round.
  • Farther northwest encircled in white could get 5″+. That is potential, not a promise. That would be up to 2″ from round 1 AND 3″+ from round 2 before mixing to ice.
  • In Maryland: Northern Harford, northern Baltimore, Carroll, western Howard, Frederick, and Washington Counties
  • Southern Pennsylvania: including Adams, York, and Lancaster Counties.

 

 

 

FITF and SnowStix 

 

 

 

Please share your thoughts, best weather pics/video, or just keep in touch via social media

 

New Colors

We are giving 10% of each sale to Just In Power Kids: Providing FREE holistic care for pediatric oncology patients.

 


New Partner

Buchanan Kia of Westminster is a supporter of Just In Power Kids and Maryland Trek 6 in August 2019.


 

 

 

Related Links:

Winter Outlook

My Winter Outlook 2018-19: Multiple Nor’Easters and more snow

Interactive Snow Report

November 15 Snow Reports- Interactive Map Compared To My Forecast

Winter Snow And Top 5 Wet Years 

Snowfall Seasons at Beginning and End of Top 5 Wet Years In Baltimore

 

Related Winter Outlooks

Tropical Hints At Winter Snow

Solar Cycle: When Sun Spots Are Low We Get More Snow

El Nino Modoki May Enhance Snow Chances

Sweet Spot: Hitting 70ºF on Halloween is followed by more winter snow

Will A Wet Summer Bring A Snowy Winter?

 

Winter Weather Folklore

NOAA Winter 2018-2019 Outlook Explained: This Actually Supports Snow

Winter Outlook From Two Different Farmers Almanacs

Maryland Winters: Snowfall Maps and Baltimore Snow History