Tuesday February 12 2019

This is a legitimate ice storm. The results of the cold air and freezing rain have coated much of the region in a thick layer of ice. This is too much for the trees, and may have been falling down.  Heavy rain on top of the ice even after some warming still can add weight. Numerous reports of trees continuing to fall is why the warnings continue until this evening. The two photos here are from Damascus and Catonsville, but many more areas look like this.

Ice Storm Photo Above From: Laura Vaughn

Ice Storm Photo Below From: Niki Fiffe



Not Even Close To Done Yet

What I am about to tell you is what I told my wife, and her response was:

Really??? UGH!!!

This is what we still have over the next week.

  • Until This Evening: Winter Storm Warning for remaining ice
  • Tonight: Heavy rain until midnight. There might be some thunder AND possible flooding. Especially in places with snow and ice covering storm drains.
  • Wednesday Morning: Places with ice may refreeze
  • Saturday: More snow region wide
  • Sunday: Chance of additional snow (not guaranteed)
  • Larger Storm Next Week: Tuesday night into Wednesday (as lit looks now) could bring a wider snow then ice storm


Power Outages

Many areas are without power and still under a warning. But there may also be a refreeze before tomorrow morning.


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Winter Storm Warning

The remaining Winter Weather Advisory (blue) in /Howard and Montgomery Counties expires at 4 PM; Cecil and Kent Counties expires t 6 PM.

The Storm Warning in Maryland is until 7 PM. While temperatures are warming above freezing, there is a lot of ice that has yet to melt or fall from trees and power lines.



Rain Timeline —> slider

Heavy rain 8 PM to Midnight. There may be some thunder and areas of flooding at this time.

[metaslider id=73166]



Well, the rain will end between midnight and 2 AM, but the ground will remain soggy. These are the temperatures forecast for midnight and sunrise Wednesday. Places that had ice problems, there is a good chance there will be some refreezing by morning. Schools in these areas may need to check on the roads for any need for delays.





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Looking Ahead For Two More Storms

I am a firm believe that we need to get through the current event as see how it behaves before looking to the next one. But it is worth noting that there is more action in the pipeline. The Euro Model has done a good job with this event, so there is more confidence in what may come next: Saturday and next Tuesday.

But here is the animation first on the GFS Model.  Note, this brings snow Saturday, but not much Sunday. There are other models that enhance round 2. Then a second separate storm arrives with snow and more ice.


Weekend Event:


European Model

At this point it looks like the bulk will pass on the southern part of our area. If the typical shift north applies, that keeps us in the bulls eye.



Next Week Event:

Tuesday Night into Wednesday


European Model

The next system looks like a classic icing event. Again, this one is a week away, so there will be some wiggle room with the timing and track But snow mixing with ice is the way it looks for now.


Temperature Outlook

As we just saw, a wintry event can hit hard event when the outlook showed temps above freezing for afternoon highs. It looks like the trend will be in the 30s/below average next week.




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Related Links:

Winter Outlook

My Winter Outlook 2018-19: Multiple Nor’Easters and more snow

Interactive Snow Report

November 15 Snow Reports- Interactive Map Compared To My Forecast

Winter Snow And Top 5 Wet Years 

Snowfall Seasons at Beginning and End of Top 5 Wet Years In Baltimore


Related Winter Outlooks

Tropical Hints At Winter Snow

Solar Cycle: When Sun Spots Are Low We Get More Snow

El Nino Modoki May Enhance Snow Chances

Sweet Spot: Hitting 70ºF on Halloween is followed by more winter snow

Will A Wet Summer Bring A Snowy Winter?


Winter Weather Folklore

NOAA Winter 2018-2019 Outlook Explained: This Actually Supports Snow

Winter Outlook From Two Different Farmers Almanacs

Maryland Winters: Snowfall Maps and Baltimore Snow History