Friday February 15 2019

I was downplaying the snow on Saturday and now it appears even southern Maryland will get less. The warm air today will be replaced by a cool down, but the force that will bring back winter will shift the snow south. But if you remember the next systems on Sunday evening… That will be south as well. So there could be some minor impact a the end of the weekend.

The southern shift also adjusts the potential for the storm next week.  The result there could bring in a little more snow. before the change over to the dreaded ice storm. Here is a brief look.

Morning Snapshot

  • The warm up for us will last one day.  Colder air is will will spark the snow Saturday…
  • The western US remains very stormy. Some of that energy is what we expect to bring us ice and snow next week.

 

Temperatures: Already A Warm Start For Some

  • Much of central and southern Maryland start in the upper 40s to near 50ºF.
  • Souther PA starts in the 30s, but will warm up quickly.

 

Local Weather Stats For February 15, 2019 in Baltimore

Average High:  45ºF

Record High: 77ºF in 1949

Average  Low: 27ºF

Record Low:  6ºF in 2015

                         *Record Snow:  11.5″ in 1976

Sunrise: 6:58 AM

Sunset 5:43 PM 

*Daylight = 2:23 longer than yesterday 

*Bay Water Temperature = 37ºF at Thomas Pt. Light House 

 

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This Afternoon

 

Saturday: Snow Shifts South

Instead of the snow with wet roads I discussed yesterday, this looks like lighter snow for southern Maryland with little stickage on the grass.

More snow metro Richmond, VA.. But I would still expect wet roads.

 

Sunday: 

  • The bulk of showers that was expected to be in PA, has shifted south into central Maryland. Notice the freezing line will be crossing I-95 in central Maryland. So we might need to consider how quickly the ground can cool for any icing overnight into Monday morning.
  • The amount falling will be light.

 

Next Week: This Storm Looks To Start Colder and Farther South As Well

Here is the latest European Model showing light snow beginning early Wednesday morning. This shows a longer period of snow in our area followed by freezing rain later Wednesday, overnight, and into Thursday morning on the north side.

This is still 5 days away, so not a lock. The storm has consistently be a featured element, but I would expect some wiggle room. That is why I do not give specifics… just follow the trend at this point.

ECMWF Model — > slider

 

Temperature Outlook

Plenty of ups and downs, but the overall average will be near to below average

 

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Related Links:

Winter Outlook

My Winter Outlook 2018-19: Multiple Nor’Easters and more snow

Interactive Snow Report

November 15 Snow Reports- Interactive Map Compared To My Forecast

Winter Snow And Top 5 Wet Years 

Snowfall Seasons at Beginning and End of Top 5 Wet Years In Baltimore

 

Related Winter Outlooks

Tropical Hints At Winter Snow

Solar Cycle: When Sun Spots Are Low We Get More Snow

El Nino Modoki May Enhance Snow Chances

Sweet Spot: Hitting 70ºF on Halloween is followed by more winter snow

Will A Wet Summer Bring A Snowy Winter?

 

Winter Weather Folklore

NOAA Winter 2018-2019 Outlook Explained: This Actually Supports Snow

Winter Outlook From Two Different Farmers Almanacs

Maryland Winters: Snowfall Maps and Baltimore Snow History