Sunday February 17 2019

Cold air has returned this morning and we will be right on the edge of that air mass as the next system arrives this evening. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for some icing from freezing rain. This is for the normally colder areas west and north of Baltimore into southern PA.  We should be warming overnight with the freezing line well to our north by Monday morning. So with the Presidents Day Holiday and rising temps, this should not be a Monday morning concern. Come Wednesday, that will be a very different story:

Update: See the NEW Winter Storm Watch Tue Night into Wed Night 


Winter Weather Advisory:

The National Weather Service often has a longer time than needed. The model below shows our region warming before the end time stamps. But it is important to remember that any ice that falls can take some time to melt after temps warm.  The icing will be light and not like last week’s storm (this time).

  • Maryland and Virginia: 3 PM Sunday to 3 AM Monday
  • Pennsylvania: 7 PM Sunday to 10 AM Monday


Local Weather Stats For February 17, 2019 in Baltimore

Average High:  45ºF

Record High: 76ºF in 1976

Average  Low: 27ºF

Record Low:  12ºF in 1958

                         *Record Snow:  7.8″ in 1893

Sunrise: 6:55 AM

Sunset 5:45 PM 

*Daylight = 2:24 longer than yesterday 

*Bay Water Temperature = 38ºF at Thomas Pt. Light House 


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Morning Temperatures

Cold air this morning Brough the 20s deep into Maryland on both sides of the Bay.


Morning Weather Map

The storm is organizing and wil be part of a very active pattern over the next two weeks. We will be on the edge of the cold air as this arrives this evening.


Freezing Rain and Snow Animation

  • The icing locally will be limited this evening and Monday morning. More impact in metro New York to New England with ice and snow.
  • This animation ends at 1 PM Monday


Freezing Rain—> slider

  • Warm air at cloud level while colder at the surface is what will develop freezing rain.
  • This model shows a limited time and area this freezing rain will fall. The trend has been to push the warmer air in sooner.
  • Monday morning should be just wet for most of us, but…
  • Since there is potential for some valleys between the airports beings a little colder, it’s possible some spots may hold the ice longer.

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Monday Morning

Temps will ben just barely above freezing from Westminster to southern PA. Since there is potential for some valleys between the airports beings a little colder, it’s possible some spots may hold the ice longer.


Looking Ahead to Wednesday’s Storm

  • Most of our region wil see a burst of snow Wednesday morning as it arrives.
  • There will be enough for a few inches to fall before changing over.
  • More will fall in areas that will also get more icing along and west of I-95 into Southern PA.

Snow, Ice, Then Rain —> slider

  • While there will be a few inches of snow at the onset, it is too early to say how much before the mix and change over. The first indication of snow amounts will be tomorrow (within 48 hours of the event).
  • Plan for a change to rain around the Bay and south of The Bay Bridge during the afternoon and evening.
  • Ice will be a problem in same areas that had snow and ice last week.

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Temperature Outlook

Note: It will be cold enough for snow and ice most of Wednesday in Baltimore. The high temperatures will be at night.

A few warm days will be mixing in with an overall trend near normal.




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Related Links:

Winter Outlook

My Winter Outlook 2018-19: Multiple Nor’Easters and more snow

Interactive Snow Report

November 15 Snow Reports- Interactive Map Compared To My Forecast

Winter Snow And Top 5 Wet Years 

Snowfall Seasons at Beginning and End of Top 5 Wet Years In Baltimore


Related Winter Outlooks

Tropical Hints At Winter Snow

Solar Cycle: When Sun Spots Are Low We Get More Snow

El Nino Modoki May Enhance Snow Chances

Sweet Spot: Hitting 70ºF on Halloween is followed by more winter snow

Will A Wet Summer Bring A Snowy Winter?


Winter Weather Folklore

NOAA Winter 2018-2019 Outlook Explained: This Actually Supports Snow

Winter Outlook From Two Different Farmers Almanacs

Maryland Winters: Snowfall Maps and Baltimore Snow History