4:30 PM Sun February 17 2019

Doppler Radar appears to be showing the arrival of our wintry weather a little ahead of schedule.The Winter Weather Advisory is still in place for the northern counties of Maryland (north of Baltimore and southern PA). The icing will be light, but the earlier arrival might impact your Sunday evening plans. We should be thaw by Monday morning.

Update: See the NEW Winter Storm Watch Tue Night into Wed Night 

 

Turning Colder As The Precipitation Arrives

Before showing the radar, I need to point out something first. The temperatures were just above freeing this afternoon, but the dew point was much lower. That is the level at which the moisture in the atmosphere would condense. When a storm arrives, the first round of precipitation can evaporate in the atmosphere. This cools the air the same way your skin feels chilly when you step out of the shower.

The evaporative cooling will allow the temps to drop a few degrees when the precipitation arrives. It can also allow rain to chance to sleet as it falls.

Temperatues 

 

Dew Points

Compare the colder spots that are in the Winter Weather Advisory: Westminster and York have temps in the mid 30s, but Dew Points range from 18ºF to 20ºF. This will allow temps to drop below freezing when the sleet and freezing rain arrives.

 

Arriving A Little Sooner

Doppler Radar

 

Radar Simulation —> slider

  • The modeling has been slower and maybe underestimated what is arriving.
  • This slider looks less impressive than what is seen now.
  • We will need to nowcast this during the evening for intensity and road conditions

 

Looking Ahead to Wednesday’s Storm

  • Most of our region wil see a burst of snow Wednesday morning as it arrives.
  • There will be enough for a few inches to fall before changing over.
  • More will fall in areas that will also get more icing along and west of I-95 into Southern PA.

Snow, Ice, Then Rain —> slider

  • While there will be a few inches of snow at the onset, it is too early to say how much before the mix and change over. The first indication of snow amounts will be tomorrow (within 48 hours of the event).
  • Plan for a change to rain around the Bay and south of The Bay Bridge during the afternoon and evening.
  • Ice will be a problem in same areas that had snow and ice last week.

 

 

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Temperature Outlook

Note: It will be cold enough for snow and ice most of Wednesday in Baltimore. The high temperatures will be at night.

A few warm days will be mixing in with an overall trend near normal.

 

 

 

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Related Links:

Winter Outlook

My Winter Outlook 2018-19: Multiple Nor’Easters and more snow

Interactive Snow Report

November 15 Snow Reports- Interactive Map Compared To My Forecast

Winter Snow And Top 5 Wet Years 

Snowfall Seasons at Beginning and End of Top 5 Wet Years In Baltimore

 

Related Winter Outlooks

Tropical Hints At Winter Snow

Solar Cycle: When Sun Spots Are Low We Get More Snow

El Nino Modoki May Enhance Snow Chances

Sweet Spot: Hitting 70ºF on Halloween is followed by more winter snow

Will A Wet Summer Bring A Snowy Winter?

 

Winter Weather Folklore

NOAA Winter 2018-2019 Outlook Explained: This Actually Supports Snow

Winter Outlook From Two Different Farmers Almanacs

Maryland Winters: Snowfall Maps and Baltimore Snow History