February 20 2019
The Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather Advisory in place locally until 1 AM accounts for more freezing rain. We can see that on the radar tonight. Many schools have already called a 2 hour delay for Thursday morning. But if you have to head to work, what will the conditions be when you wake up? We will be within a degree or two of freezing and that can make a big difference between icy or wet.
It’s important to note that even when temps warm above freezing, there is ice left over that takes time to melt. Also, the ice on the trees will likely melt, break, and fall off once the sun hits it in the morning. That will create another issue of falling debris regardless of how warm it will be.
More light freezing rain will be adding to the layer of crust on everything in the frozen zones.
Temperatures at 10 PM
The freezing line is through central Maryland. All locations at 32ºF are on the edge and not promised to be icy, but can’t be promised to be wet either.
Baltimore Weather Conditions at BWI
- Temperature = 32ºF
- Dew Point = 32ºF
- Relative Humidity = 100%
- Wind:NE at 5 mph
There is ice accumulating on trees, cars, elevated platforms, etc. But road conditions depend on salting and location. It’s possible to turn the corner and temps drop just a little to turn more icy.
What will happen by morning?
Under normal circumstances, a degree or two would not make a difference, but here we see a little spread on the modeling at 6 AM.
NAM 3 Km– Keeps the northern zones icy. But warms BWI and southward.
GFS Model is warmer and brings most areas into the thaw. With the exception of Hagerstown.
HRRR Model —> slider
I like the behavior of this model, plus we can track the hourly temps to show the big thaw. Watch the jump to near 50ºF by noon.
I will have an early report on the conditions. See you then
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