Wednesday Evening February 27 2019

Do you know the expression that ifs you look hard enough you can find anything you want on the internet?  That applies to everything, even news.  We have the now with the weather. It will snow on Friday morning and there may be some impact on travel. But what I have to share below is truly one of the most obscure wide ranges of possibilities with a little event I have ever seen.

Friday Snow Notes

?Not a major storm.

?Dusting to 2 inches, mostly early morning Friday

?Stikcage on roads possible Friday morning in metro areas.

?School delays possible❓

❄️Ends by mid-day Friday with melting after noon.

 

Compare the model timelines and then see the spread of snowfall maps from each below. The GFS Model Slider and Snowfall Maps are new.. below.

Note: The GFS is on the low end and the Canadian is on the way-way high end.  The NAM 3 Km Model has dropped it’s snow forecast from the morning to the afternoon run.  So once again, the European ECMWF is the most consistent… But you can find whatever you want in the breakdown below.

Friday Morning Snow Timelines

NAM 3 Km —> slider

  • This model primarily shows snow around metro Baltimore to the upper Eastern Shore’s Kent and Cecil Counties.
  • Most done quickly by sunrise
  • This model keeps the bulk south York.
  • Washington and Annapolis start with snow and turn to a slushy mix with marginal temperatures.

 

Friday Morning Temperatures

Stickage very likely around Baltimore and north, including Eastern Shore’s Kent and Cecil Counties.

Marginal stickage or wet roads between Washington DC to Annapolis.

 

NAM 3 Km Animation

 

ECMWF Model —> slider

  • The primary snow appears to be between York PA and southern Maryland.
  • The snow burst timing is a little later. pasting into the Friday morning commute.

 

Friday Morning Temperatures

This is a colder solution

Stickage very likely around Baltimore and north, including Eastern Shore’s Kent and Cecil Counties and Washington DC to Annapolis.

 

GFS Model —> slider

 

Snowfall Forecast Maps

The European Model has been the most reliable… It has come up a little with snowfall.
The top spot around metro Baltimore between 2 and 3 inches. Less north by the PA line

 

NAM 3 Km Model

The NAM Model has lowered in the most recent run, but is more realistic…

Older (morning) run

 

Newer (afternoon) run

Dropped Baltimore from 5 inches to 2 inches 

 

 

Canadian GEM Model

The way-WAY- High Total

Honestly, I think 7 inches is ridiculous with this set up

 

GFS Model

The low end is within reason, but definitely the bottom of the pack. This should add credit to at least getting something for most of the region.

 

Note: 

Often with seeing a model spread like this, we toss out the extremes and then take an average of what is left. That is why I feel remaining with a range of a dusting to 2 inches is on the safe side.

I will post my formal call for snowfall tomorrow.

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Related Links:

Winter Outlook

My Winter Outlook 2018-19: Multiple Nor’Easters and more snow

Was Your County Not Included?

Click this map for more on the regional forecast zones

Interactive Snow Report

November 15 Snow Reports- Interactive Map Compared To My Forecast

Winter Snow And Top 5 Wet Years 

Snowfall Seasons at Beginning and End of Top 5 Wet Years In Baltimore

 

Related Winter Outlooks

Tropical Hints At Winter Snow

Solar Cycle: When Sun Spots Are Low We Get More Snow

El Nino Modoki May Enhance Snow Chances

Sweet Spot: Hitting 70ºF on Halloween is followed by more winter snow

Will A Wet Summer Bring A Snowy Winter?

 

Winter Weather Folklore

NOAA Winter 2018-2019 Outlook Explained: This Actually Supports Snow

Winter Outlook From Two Different Farmers Almanacs

Maryland Winters: Snowfall Maps and Baltimore Snow History