Saturday March 16 2019

The weather today is going to be a shock to your system. That line of storms Friday evening was a cold front that was a but more potent than expected. Temperatures reached 78ºF on Friday at BWI (not a record), which fueled the storm to become severe in central Maryland. This was the line of clouds I watched as it developed around sunset and moved across Northern Maryland.


This morning that cold front is off of the coast, and the gusty winds are from the northwest gusting between 20 and 30 mph. The morning clouds and flurries in the mountains will give way to more sunshine… but we will remain cold. In fact we will stay below average all weekend. Another way to look at this is that the luck of the Irish will be with us on St. Patirck’s Day and it will be dry!

Hang in there, another warm up is on the way next week. But first a little snow to talk about.





Local Weather Stats For March 16, 2019 in Baltimore

Average High:  54ºF

Record High: 85ºF in 1945

Average  Low: 33ºF

Record Low:  14ºF in 1911

                         *Record Snow:  = 5.1 in 1960

Sunrise: 7:17 AM

Sunset 7:15 PM  

*Daylight = 2:35 longer than yesterday 

*Bay Water Temperature = 43ºF at Thomas Pt. Light House 


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Weekend Temperatures

Highs Today


Sunday Temperature Extremes





Is It Really Going To Snow?

The GFS Model is the most aggressive with this event. If this verifies, it will be early Monday morning when we see the flakes arrive… but it’s important to keep three things in mind:

  • The air temperatures for most of the area will barely be at or just above freezing. The colder spots near and north of the PA line may be cold enough for stickage.
  • The ground is warm. So stickage is most likely on the grass.
  • This will be a light snowfall and only last a few hours.


Snow Simulation Timeline —> slider

I would not hold my breath for much of a school impact. Even when the freezing line drops south of the PA line at daybreak Monday, it will be brief. The pavement is likely to remain warmer. The best bet for stickage will be on the grass and maybe some sidewalks and driveways.  More likely most will get just a view of light snow or flurries falling.

[metaslider id=74752]


Weather Animation

Here was can see the light snow Monday… and rain on Thursday. Most of next week will be dry:


Temperature Outlook:

If we do have that chance of snow on Monday morning, it will come at the tom of day when temperatures are in the 20s. I’ve highlighted that below. It is March and as we will see today, we can get a big jump to the 40s easily after a cold start.



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Related Links:

Winter Outlook

My Winter Outlook 2018-19: Multiple Nor’Easters and more snow

Was Your County Not Included?

Click this map for more on the regional forecast zones

Interactive Snow Report

November 15 Snow Reports- Interactive Map Compared To My Forecast

Winter Snow And Top 5 Wet Years 

Snowfall Seasons at Beginning and End of Top 5 Wet Years In Baltimore


Related Winter Outlooks

Tropical Hints At Winter Snow

Solar Cycle: When Sun Spots Are Low We Get More Snow

El Nino Modoki May Enhance Snow Chances

Sweet Spot: Hitting 70ºF on Halloween is followed by more winter snow

Will A Wet Summer Bring A Snowy Winter?


Winter Weather Folklore

NOAA Winter 2018-2019 Outlook Explained: This Actually Supports Snow

Winter Outlook From Two Different Farmers Almanacs

Maryland Winters: Snowfall Maps and Baltimore Snow History