Monday March 18 2019

This morning I woke up and saw the radar split snow showers in two parts. One to the north in PA and the other across central Maryland. Neither appeared to be a travel issue. The snowfall is light and the temperatures are above freezing.  The should be more showers form during the day, but just for ambience.

 

Spring is just a few days away, but here in late March we will continue to get the battle of late winter trying to push back every few days.  I know the big questions is if we will get any more snow… While there is nothing to support that we will get more now, the active weather pattern will try to produce a few more storms that will keep us on our toes. But in between, we do see some pretty warm days as well.

 

Local Weather Stats For March 18, 2019 in Baltimore

Average High:  54ºF

Record High: 81ºF in 2011

Average  Low: 34ºF

Record Low:  9ºF in 1892

                         *Record Snow:  = 12.0 in 1892

Sunrise: 7:13 AM

Sunset 7:16 PM  

*Daylight = 2:35 longer than yesterday 

*Bay Water Temperature = 44ºF at Thomas Pt. Light House 

 

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Morning Temperatures 

Snow Showers

The GFS Model shows the most likely locations for the snow showers along Rt 50 from Washington to Annapolis and across the the Northern Eastern Shore.

 

 

Radar Simulation –> slider

 

Afternoon High Temperatures 

 

Storm Animation

The next event will be Thursday and it looks like a coastal storm is trying to stay closer. This was on the modeling last week and then pushed out to sea. Now it is close enough that is work monitoring as the cold air to the west is trying to link up. I expect this scenario to change, so the snow potential is close enough to pay attention to.

If we get snow in March, it needs to begin at night for the best chance for stickage. So even the mention of it does not mean it will be a travel issue.  First order is to track any developments… then if there is something of substance, the timing will be key. No worries for now.

 

Temperature Outlook:

This week we will have gradual warming until that storm forms.  This weekend appears to be warmer, and we could jump back close to the 70ºF mark by the end of the weekend (models often underestimate the warming in spring). Then another push of colder air next week. Highs by Wednesday could struggle to reach the lower 40s again.

 

 

 

 

 

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Related Links:

Winter Outlook

My Winter Outlook 2018-19: Multiple Nor’Easters and more snow

Was Your County Not Included?

Click this map for more on the regional forecast zones

Interactive Snow Report

November 15 Snow Reports- Interactive Map Compared To My Forecast

Winter Snow And Top 5 Wet Years 

Snowfall Seasons at Beginning and End of Top 5 Wet Years In Baltimore

 

Related Winter Outlooks

Tropical Hints At Winter Snow

Solar Cycle: When Sun Spots Are Low We Get More Snow

El Nino Modoki May Enhance Snow Chances

Sweet Spot: Hitting 70ºF on Halloween is followed by more winter snow

Will A Wet Summer Bring A Snowy Winter?

 

Winter Weather Folklore

NOAA Winter 2018-2019 Outlook Explained: This Actually Supports Snow

Winter Outlook From Two Different Farmers Almanacs

Maryland Winters: Snowfall Maps and Baltimore Snow History