Thursday March 21 2019

This storm is a NorEaster that is still developing and producing problems for our area. The Flood Watch continues through tonight for most of our region. It extends into Friday morning for Southern Pennsylvania. There have been a few warnings with heavy rainfall and I expect there may be more with downpours this evening west of the cities.

Radar Loop From 1 PM to 3 PM

Notice the circulation of the Low over Norfolk, VA. The heavy rain in yellow, orange, and red appears to be stuck to the west of Washington and Baltimore. Some of the area along I-83 could see 3 inches of rain. The rest of the area still up for 1 to 2 inched with more downpours tonight.

 

 

The radar simulation hourly timeline is below, but first I wanted to explain why this is a Nor’easter. Many people asked me about this thinking that was just a name for a coastal snow storm. But any strong coastal storm can be a Nor’easter for three reasons:

1: A Coastal Storm Moving To The Northeast

 

2: Strong Winds Wrap Around FROM The Northeast

The wind directions highlighted here show the northeast flow over central Maryland. But look at the change to the northwest wind flow in Virginia. Also, the Southeast wind across Delmarva. This shows us where the Low was located at 3 PM… winds wrapping around the center.

 

3: The Storm Will Peak As It Ends Up In The NorthEast US

This storm will spin up and move up north into New England with heavy snow tomorrow. Cold air will fill in behind it for western Maryland. Here the GFS Model is showing some mix of flakes in the northwestern suburbs of Baltimore. This snow is NOT needed for this to be a Nor’easter, but it does show up on the forecast maps.

 

Rain Timeline —> slider

The heaviest rain will be to the west across the I-81 corridor. Rain should be moving out between midnight and 4 AM.

 

Flood Watch

 

Friday Afternoon Snow?

The GFS Mode still shows flakes mixing in with the showers into the Baltimore suburbs. Nothing will stick, but don’t be surprised of there are flakes falling.

 

Snow Next Week?

I keep mentioning snow because this time last year we had a big inland snow event, so it is still possible. Next week does not look like that, but now the GFS Model caught on to what the European Model showed yesterday.

 

 

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Related Links:

Winter Outlook

My Winter Outlook 2018-19: Multiple Nor’Easters and more snow

Was Your County Not Included?

Click this map for more on the regional forecast zones

Interactive Snow Report

November 15 Snow Reports- Interactive Map Compared To My Forecast

Winter Snow And Top 5 Wet Years 

Snowfall Seasons at Beginning and End of Top 5 Wet Years In Baltimore

 

Related Winter Outlooks

Tropical Hints At Winter Snow

Solar Cycle: When Sun Spots Are Low We Get More Snow

El Nino Modoki May Enhance Snow Chances

Sweet Spot: Hitting 70ºF on Halloween is followed by more winter snow

Will A Wet Summer Bring A Snowy Winter?

 

Winter Weather Folklore

NOAA Winter 2018-2019 Outlook Explained: This Actually Supports Snow

Winter Outlook From Two Different Farmers Almanacs

Maryland Winters: Snowfall Maps and Baltimore Snow History