Friday March 22 2019

This mid day update is pertaining the the last part of this Nor’easter. The Low Pressure is to our north and the storm is pulling away. The Flood Watches have been dropped, but the Wind Advisories remain in place for gusts to 50 mph. Winds have been gusty, but there will increase later this afternoon. There is one more piece to this event and it will arrive this afternoon with a round of strong showers that may contain ice pellets (hail), wet snow, and even thunder. Fun stuff, right?

 

Winds At Noon

The winds have been gusting high already…

At noon the gusts over 35 mph have been highlighted in red.  Expect a surge of winds with and after the line of storms (timeline below).

Note that temperatures are in the mid to upper 40s uniformly across the region.

 

Short Wave Trough and Vort Max

That is just fact talk for upper level energy that will swing through this afternoon. This is what will ignite the strong showers. The energy aloft brings in colder air at lower levels. So any convection (building clouds) will have a lower freezing level to produce ice pellets or snow (most likely graupel).

The main energy will pass Friday afternoon, but the upper level flow may keep clouds around for the first part of Saturday.

 

Water Vapor Satellite (2 Hours ending 11:30 AM)

While snow showers are diving out of Lake Erie into western PA, I wanted to focus on the low level moisture. That is seen here in blue and white. That is the line of showers that will develop and cross our the central part of our region between 3 and 6 PM

 

 

 

Radar Simulation —> slider

The line of storms will approach from the west and take up to 1 hour to cross your area.

  • 3 PM to 5 PM for Frederick/Westminster/Mount Air/Baltimore/Bel Air/Annapolis
  • 5 PM to 7 PM between The Bay Bridge/Easton/Salisbury/and Ocean City

 

Wind Advisory

The Advisory is in place for Carroll, western Howard counties and points west of the cities. This is where the best chance for gusts to 50 mph will be, but strong winds will be felt across metro areas and the Bay Bridge between 4 and 6 PM. You may want to plan your commute accordingly.

 

Wind Gust Timeline –>slider

The strongest winds will arrive with the line of showers and remain after they pass.

This should be near the Bay Bridge around 5 PM

 

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Related Links:

Winter Outlook

My Winter Outlook 2018-19: Multiple Nor’Easters and more snow

Was Your County Not Included?

Click this map for more on the regional forecast zones

Interactive Snow Report

November 15 Snow Reports- Interactive Map Compared To My Forecast

Winter Snow And Top 5 Wet Years 

Snowfall Seasons at Beginning and End of Top 5 Wet Years In Baltimore

 

Related Winter Outlooks

Tropical Hints At Winter Snow

Solar Cycle: When Sun Spots Are Low We Get More Snow

El Nino Modoki May Enhance Snow Chances

Sweet Spot: Hitting 70ºF on Halloween is followed by more winter snow

Will A Wet Summer Bring A Snowy Winter?

 

Winter Weather Folklore

NOAA Winter 2018-2019 Outlook Explained: This Actually Supports Snow

Winter Outlook From Two Different Farmers Almanacs

Maryland Winters: Snowfall Maps and Baltimore Snow History