Monday April 8 2019

3 PM Afternoon Update

We have been expecting showers and some thunderstorms to develop this afternoon. With temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s and a cold front approaching, the energy has sparked some thunderstorms in the mountains. But the first glance may be deceiving as models have suggested the bulk of the energy will shift south through the evening.

 

At 3 PM Doppler Radar showed a cluster of thunderstorms in southern PA near Chambersburg. But the modeling does not match. This has been moving to the east, but also losing energy.  So by the time it reaches York County it may be falling apart. It’s the southern cluster in Virginia that needs to be watched for expending development into metro Washington and Baltimore.

 

Radar Simulation: Rain Timeline —> slider

  • The HRRR did not even show the Southern PA storm cluster as much for 3 PM. So the initialization is off a little.
  • The focus of rain and energy appears to come out of south central VA expanding into southern Maryland this evening.
  • This model is far from perfect, but if it is correct… The main batch of local storms will develop east of Washington and south of Annapolis between 6 and 7 PM, then pass to the lower Eastern Shore through the evening.

     

     

     

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