Sunday April 14 2019

We have a potentially dangerous weather situation for tonight. Please take this seriously and spread the word to your friends at least to just be aware. Our severe storm risk has increased and could be widespread hitting hardest when most are sleeping. The only good news I have to share is that low clouds and earlier drizzle has cut back our chance for showers this afternoon. But that is only delaying the inevitable. There is a lot of energy aloft, combined with storm favorable wind shifting to the southeast along the Bay and we have two rounds of potential severe storms on the way.

I am trying something new in this post. I have an animation of the radar simulation. The will give the idea of how the two waves of storms will develop. Below are the classic sliders you control to see each hour for each storm window I expect is the most concerning.

Enhanced Storm Risk

When: Sunday Evening AND After Midnight

What’s Possible:

  • Winds over 58 mph
  • Hail over 1 inch diameter
  • Isolated Tornadoes

Also expect frequent, vivid lightning and loud long rumbling thunder. This can appear louder in the middle of the night.

The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded the risk for severe storms for our region to Enhanced. This means that we can expect a widespread area of storms with numerous reaching severe limits.

Where: Severe Storms are possible for most of our region. This includes metro Baltimore and Washington through central Maryland, northern Delaware, and most of Pennsylvania. This includes and are of over 30 million people and the worst weather may be overnight. 

Low Level Jet

The cold front overnight will be working with winds up to 60 knots at 5,000 Ft above the ground. That’s wind speed close to 70 mph that can be mixed down to the surface in storms. This qualifies severe limits. It’s possible to just have destructive winds without a tornado, but some spin ups will be possible, even with the loss of daytime heating in this set up.

 

Storm Animation: Radar Simulation

See the sliders below

 

Severe Alert Notes:

IF we get any severe weather alerts, this is what is most important to keep in mind:

A WATCH means it MIGHT happen

A WARNING means it IS HAPPENING NOW!  This can be tracked across counties and towns with more precision and need to seek strong shelter.

 

Afternoon Setup

At 2 PM, the mild air is in place despite the lack of sun. But that is only part of the story. The winds are increase and along the Bay shifting to the Southeast. That is often a direction that can enhance severe weather in central Maryland. This adds moisture from the Atlantic and Bay, plus rides upslope inland to converge with the main energy arriving from the opposite direction (west).

 

Radar Loop: Noon to 2 PM

Sunday Evening —> slider 

Two regions to watch: 1) Along the mountains moving northward towards PA; 2) Southern Maryland doing northward up the Bay.

 

After Midnight—> slider 

The main line moving east. This is the cold front with the bulk of the energy and strongest winds. This may interact with a prefrontal line of storms forming along the western shore of the Bay. This is where the most violent weather could be in central Maryland between 1 to 3 AM. Then predawn on Delmarva.

 

My Advice:

Secure Outdoor Items:  Take the afternoon and evening to secure any yard furniture and tools you may have set out.

Devices: Fully charge your phone, etc. Keep the sound on and close to you. This will hopefully alert you if there are any watches or warnings.

Check Back This Evening: I will provide any updates on storm threat and timeline. But also make sure to check it with any other source like TV or other websites. If you are in central Maryland or Southern PA, check out WBAL with Tony Pann. Yes, he is a good friend, but also a very valuable source especially in a potentially severe set up like this.

 

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Please share your thoughts, best weather pics/video, or just keep in touch via social media

 

 

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