Thursday May 23 2019

Today is our day to pay close attention to developing weather. The Storm Prediction Center has much of Pennsylvania and central Maryland in the Enhanced Risk for Severe Storms. The prime time wil be between 3 PM and 7 PM. It does not promise you will get storms that turn severe, but it is likely to be nearby.

 

Severe Storm Qualifier:

  • Winds over 58 mph
  • Large hail over 1 inch diameter
  • Isolated Tornados

Please note that as we get closer, these are potential alerts to be issued.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch: A broad area and window with a 4 to 6 hour time frame. This means it MIGHT happen.

Severe Thunderstorm Warning: A focused area like a county usually with a 30 to 60 minute time frame. This means it IS HAPPENING NOW.

Tornado Warning: A focused area and time frame. This would list towns in a likely path within a 15 to 45 minute window.

After today, we should get a break into the holiday weekend, with a little cool down. Temperature will build back up with afternoon storms Sunday and Memorial Day.

 

 

Local Weather Stats For May 23, 2019 in Baltimore

Average High:  76ºF

Record High: 98ºF in 1925

Average  Low: 54ºF

Record Low:  39ºF in 1961

Sunrise: 5:46 AM

Sunset 8:20 PM  

*Daylight = 1:33 longer than yesterday 

*Bay Water Temperature = 66ºF at Thomas Pt. Light House 

 

Weather Forecast Below 

 

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Temperatures 

Morning Temperatures

It’s warm, and this afternoon will turn hot and a little more humid.

 

High Temperatures Today

 

 

Severe Storm Risk Today

Here is the wider map view of the potential for severe storms today. It is shown to be more likely in PA for storms to form and then drop into Maryland. But the short range models actually show more risk with higher heat in central Maryland.

 

Storm Models Today

Morning Radar Loop (5 Hours up to 6:30 AM)

 

 

This morning

While not much is on the radar this morning, there is a hint of upper level energy to spark some showers along the MD/PA line between 9 AM and 11 AM.

 

Afternoon Storm Simulation —> slider

This is the HRRR Model showing one possible scenario.  Note the model are NOT perfect. Sometimes they miss activity or the timing can be off by an hour.

 

The NAM Model at 4 PM

This is just to compare a more defined line of storms crossing metro areas at 4 PM

 

 

Temperature Outlook

A refreshing air mass arrives for the start of the weekend. Heat returns Sunday with some storms. Memorial Day may have some storms, but overall looks nice at this time.

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