Tuesday May 28 2019

Some showers and a few lighting strikes this morning are moving through. This is what is left over from severe storms in the Mid West last night. At last check, nearly 5 million people in Ohio are without power this morning. The storms have weakened on the way here, we need to watch for a new round of storms later today and tomorrow. The Storm Prediction Center has posted Severe Storm Risk for our region today and tomorrow.

Severe Storm Risk Tuesday

Today’s outlook shows two prime storm regions. Locally there is Enhanced Risk across Pennsylvania north of York and Lancaster, and Slight Risk into Baltimore. So lower threat father south. But that second region across Kansas, Missouri, and into Illinois is what will head our way tomorrow.

This means any thunderstorm has the potential for:

  • Winds over 58 mph
  • Hail over 1 inch diameter
  • Tornados (isolated)
  • Lightning will be frequent
  • Flooding in local downpours

Forecast Maps Below

 

Local Weather Stats For May 28, 2019 in Baltimore

Average High:  77ºF

Record High: 97ºF in 1941

Average  Low: 56ºF

Record Low:  41ºF in 1967

Sunrise: 5:44 AM

Sunset 8:25 PM  

*Daylight = 1:20 longer than yesterday 

*Bay Water Temperature = 70ºF at Thomas Pt. Light House 

 

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Morning Set Up

Temperatures

Note, after this rain passes, it will become more humid along with the building heat.

Doppler Radar

This snapshot is from 6 AM. Compare to the first slider image below. The modeling is NOT GOOD today! The impact has been more widespread already, and the timing is off by 1 to 2 hours.

Morning Radar Simulation —> slider

Compared to the 6 AM Doppler Radar snapshot above, we can see the modeling is NOT GOOD today! The impact has been more widespread already, and the timing is off by 1 to 2 hours.

So I do NOT trust the simulation for today. That is why we need to keep track of all development.

 

Severe Storm Risk Today

 

Afternoon Development

This HRRR Model is the highest resolution and most often updated. It has been wrong already this morning, so no reason to believe this is all we will see this afternoon. What is important to note is that storms are likely to form in PA, then drop south/southeast.

There is a 20% to 30% chance of storms later today. That is low, but any storm will have the potential to turn severe, but not guaranteed to do so.

 

Afternoon Heat

 

Wednesday Severe Storms

 

Temperature Outlook

Once we shake off the heat, it will stay away for a while. The start of June appears to be well below average.

 

 

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