Tuesday Afternoon May 28 2019

A Tornado Watch has been issued for much of Pennsylvania until 10 PM. This includes Adams, York, and Lancaster Counties boarding Maryland. But south of the Mason Dixon line the expectation for strum today is much lower.  This watch coincides with the Enhanced Severe Storm Risk posted this morning. It means the ingredients are present for storms to turn severe and rotate. But it is not a promise.

Severe Storm Risk issued earlier

Any thunderstorm has the potential for:

  • Winds over 58 mph
  • Hail over 1 inch diameter
  • Tornados (isolated)
  • Lightning will be frequent
  • Flooding in local downpours

Please note that as we get closer, these are potential alerts to be issued.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch: A broad area and window with a 4 to 6 hour time frame. This means it MIGHT happen.

Severe Thunderstorm Warning: A focused area like a county usually with a 30 to 60 minute time frame. This means it IS HAPPENING NOW.

Tornado Warning: A focused area and time frame. This would list towns in a likely path within a 15 to 45 minute window.

 

Conditions at 2 PM

Temperatures

Ample heat in the mid 80s for most places west of the Bay.

 

Dew Points

This is the true measure of moisture in the air. Most of our region is near or above 70ºF Dew Point. That is why it feels so humid, but is also fuel for strong storms that can produce heavy downpours.

Winds

Most of our region has winds form the west and southwest.  That is not supportive of severe storms for central Maryland due to the downslope from the mountains. That is why there is a greater chance near and north of the PA line.  However, there is a Bay Breeze as shown in yellow with the Southeast wind. There is a small window for some showers or storms to form in northern Carroll to Baltimore and Hartford Counties this afternoon.

Satellite Loop (2 Hours ending 3 PM)

Not much action locally, but the next few hours is the time for the heat to do the building of storms.

 

Radar Loop (2 Hours ending 3 PM)

Again, not much locally. The action is in western PA. But some isolated showers along the Maryland border are what we need to pay attention to. Any of these forming through the evening can bubble up, meaning most of us won’t see it.

Radar Simulation Timeline –> slider

This model is the most aggressive. I am showing this for the worse case scenario. The HRRR Model is actually rather sparse with only an isolated storm mid afternoon. Then more dip south overnight.

We need to pay attention to isolated storms, meaning most of us won’t see it. But any cell can become severe and likely will not be shown on this simulation. This is only for guidance of timing and general areas more prone.

 

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