5 PM Wednesday May 29

A Tornado Watch was issued earlier for much of Pennsylvania, Cecil County MD, and northern Delaware. The important issue here is that a recent Severe Thunderstorm Warning was issued in Maryland south of that region to include Frederick and Southern Carroll Counties. That is why Maryland still needs to pay attention as severe storms are trying to form over the next two to three hours without any ‘Watch’ in place.

Compare this Advisory map to the Doppler Radar Snapshot and short range modeling below. At the bottom of this post, some very impressive satellite and radar loops of the complex in PA.

Tornado Watch and Severe Thunderstorm Warnings

 

Doppler Radar SNAPSHOT at 5 PM

This cluster passing through Eldersburg is worth watching as it may trigger a larger line as it interacts with winds from the Bay and passed through Baltimore, Harford, and Cecil Counties.

 

UPDATED RADAR at 5:20 PM

Notice the cell building across Baltimore County. This movement to the east northeast is what I showed in my morning post with this renegade afternoon storms. Then we watch the PA line drop south tonight.

 

Radar Simulaltion —> slider

The first image was the short term forecast from NAM 3 Km for 5 PM.

The storm in Eldersburg was missing. The second frame at 6 PM seemed to show it, indicating the model was off by 1 hour. So please consider that for the rest of this evenings simulation.

This cell may develop into a line to affect Cecil down through the lower Eastern Shore this evening.

 

Severe Storm Qualifier:

  • Winds over 58 mph
  • Large hail over 1 inch diameter
  • Isolated Tornados

Please note that as we get closer, these are potential alerts to be issued.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch: A broad area and window with a 4 to 6 hour time frame. This means it MIGHT happen.

Severe Thunderstorm Warning: A focused area like a county usually with a 30 to 60 minute time frame. This means it IS HAPPENING NOW.

Warning: A focused area and time frame. This would list towns in a likely path within a 15 to 45 minute window.

Radar Loop (2 Hours Up to 5 PM)

 

 

IR Satellite Loop (4 Hours Up to 5 PM)

 

 

 

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