Thursday May 30 2019
Here we go again! The Storm Prediction Center has our region in the Slight Risk category for storms to turn severe today. This term may be misleading. We will have multiple rounds of storms developing after 2 PM through the evening. Many of these will have the ability to turn severe. What is most important is that we consider the risk area has dropped south a little to cover more of central Maryland.
Timing Today:
NOON UPDATE! Click here to see the latest short range model comparison
Severe Storm Risk Thursday
Severe Storm Qualifier:
Please note that as we get closer, these are potential alerts to be issued.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch: A broad area and window with a 4 to 6 hour time frame. This means it MIGHT happen.
Severe Thunderstorm Warning: A focused area like a county usually with a 30 to 60 minute time frame. This means it IS HAPPENING NOW.
Tornado Warning: A focused area and time frame. This would list towns in a likely path within a 15 to 45 minute window.
Notes:
I do not like to focus on the southern line as we saw the past few days. Some severe storms did break out south of the Watch area and risk region. So we all must be on the lookout and keep checking for updates as the storms develop.
Damage in Baltimore County will be investigated today to confirm if it was a tornado or microburst.
This will be an abbreviated post a I am still without power. I need to conserve battery on my computer until I can get more fuel for my generator or real power is restored.
Wider View
Morning Set Up
The stationary front in PA has been very active and will drop south today. The main event in the mid west will be pushing to the east to ignite multiple rounds of storms this afternoon and evening.
IR Satellite Loop
4 hours ending 6:16 AM
Wednesday brought a high temperature of 94ºF to BWI. Today will be near 90ºF again.
Average High: 78ºF
Record High: 98ºF in 2011
Average Low: 57ºF
Record Low: 38ºF in 1996
Sunrise: 5:43 AM
Sunset 8:27 PM
*Daylight = 1:14 longer than yesterday
*Bay Water Temperature = 72ºF at Thomas Pt. Light House
Weather Forecast Below
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High Temperatures Today
Radar Simulation —> slider
This model is the best guidance for today, but it is far from perfect! Yesterday there was a clear error in the storms verifying about 1 hour earlier than shown in the timeline.
We need to watch after 2 PM for development to track multiple cells through the evening.
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