Saturday July 6 2019

The heat and high humidity have to break! It is already ignored strong storms with lots of lighting and heavy rain since late morning. More are on the way that may have some help from a cold front to the west. As much as I tried to have a relaxing holiday weekend away from work, I could not ignore making this update.  It is helping with my family travels and might help you plan as well.

Please note that any storm can produce dangerous lighting. Sometimes over 10 miles away from the rain, so if you hear thunder it’s best to head inside.

Severe Storms

For a Watch or Warning to  issued, storms would be expected to have

  • Winds over 58 mph
  • Large Hail over 1 inch diameter
  • Possible rotating storms with isolated tornadoes
  • Dangerous lightning
  • Flash Flooding locally

Conditions at 4 PM

Temperatures

Heat Index

This is what it feels like due to the high humidity

 

Dew Points

This is the true measure of moisture in the atmosphere when above 70ºF. This is why it feels uncomfortable and provides more fuel for storms to dump a lot of rain.

 

Radar Loop (2 PM to 4 PM)

 

Radar Snapshot

There is one cell over Kent Island and drifting south…

The other focus will be out of the mountains to impact places west and north of Baltimore through this evening.

 

Radar Simulation —> slider

The NAM 3 Km highlights a slow moving cluster between Frederick and Westminster by 6 PM. I can’t promise this will be the case as the model is subject to some error in timing and location.

What’s important is the chance for large storms to develop and stall or move very slowly. So when they form, we need to plot them and try to nowcast if they are drifting or stalled.

 

 

Notes

The storms should settle down after sunset and fade by midnight. But where it rains, there could be thick fog…. and it might remain rather humid on Sunday.

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