Wednesday July 10 2019
Today is the anniversary of the hottest temperature on record for Baltimore. In 1936 it was 107ºF. Thankfully that will not happen today. We have one more quiet weather day before another round of storms erupt tomorrow. Typical summer heat is building with upper 80s to near 90ºF.
The other thing building is a tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico. Currently it has a 90% chance of being upgraded and it could happen today. If so, it will be named Barry. The latest model forecasts are below.
Local Weather Stats: Wednesday July 10, 2019 in Baltimore
Average High: 88ºF
Record High: 107ºF in 1936
Average Low: 67ºF
Record Low: 55ºF in 1961
Sunrise: 5:48 AM
Sunset 8:34 PM
*Daylight = 1:02 shorter than yesterday
*Bay Water Temperature = 79ºF at Thomas Pt. Light House
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Radar Simulation Thursday —> slider
Storms are likely to develop after 4 PM inland. Metro areas will get the one between 5 PM and 8 PM, then the focus will shift south through midnight.
Invest 92 – Soon to be Tropical Storm Barry
The satellite loop this morning does look mighty impressive as the center circulation is getting better organized.
The HWRF is most aggressive showing a 949 mb Low at landfall in western Louisiana on Saturday. This would translate to a Category 2 Hurricane- IF it was able to stay farther south over water long enough to develop.
Not All Models Agree
Forecast Model Tracks
The spread here shows more support for a landfall that is sooner, and just west of New Orleans. That would not give it enough time to develop as shown above.
Forecast Model Intensity
The more likely scenario is that this becomes a Tropical Storm by tonight or tomorrow. Here we can see the majority of computer models support it remaining a tropical storm. However, given the very warm water in the Gulf of Mexico, rapid development is possible. This is our first real storm of the season, and much like a winter event… we need to see if the models have a good handle on it in the short run before giving too much trust away.
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