12 PM Thursday July 18
Have you noticed the additional cloud cover building this morning? That is one of the reasons it will not be as hot today, but it is plenty humid. At noon, temperatures ranged from the mid to upper 80s with Heat Index values in the mid 90s. In fact showers have already developed and more are expected through this afternoon.
The short range modeling is far from perfect, and already missed this early flare up. But I wanted to show you how it has shown the rest of the development and what areas are most likely to some rain or quick thunderstorms.
Visible Satellite Loop
Look closely and you can actually see the circulation of weak Low Pressure as it moves across central Maryland. This is a hour satellite loop ending at 11:37 AM
This loop is 2 hours long between 9:40 AM and 11:40 AM. The rain has been developing on the north and east side of that circulation.
Soem showers have developed and diminished quickly around Baltimore. The main energy is in southern PA and Cecil County MD to Wilmington DE now.
Radar Simulation –> slider
This model is the best ‘guess’ but already has missed the early showers. It is NOT perfect. The atmosphere is unstable and more will develop around this Low into the afternoon. This should give an idea of how that may play out.
Excessive Heat Watch
End Of The Heat Dome
The heat will peak this weekend, but the jet stream next week shows a dramatic change to below normal temperatures
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