2 PM Friday August 30 2019

Hurricane Dorian has been upgraded to a Category 3. This is a major storm with winds of 115 mph and the eye looks even more healthy in the last few hours. The Hurricane Watch remains for the Bahamans, but not yet for Florida. That will be 48 hours ahead of expected hit.  The entirety of Florida is under a State of Emergency.

Hurricane Dorian Visible Satellite

Here is the visible satellite form 2 PM and the eye looks more clear than this morning, indicating it will continue to strengthen and even grow larger. See the impressive loop below.

 

Hurricane Dorian Satellite Loop: How Close Is It?

At 2 PM:

  • The center of Dorian was 625 miles east of West Palm Beach, FL
  • Top ‘sustained’ winds are 115 mph. Gusts are higher
  • Movement is to the NW at 10 mph
  • Tropical Storm Force Winds: Extend 105 miles from the center
  • Hurricane Force Winds: Extend 25 miles from the center

 

2 PM Conditions 

 

Infrared Satellite Loop

 

Forecast Models

The intensity of winds and category seen by the collection of models holds this at Category 3, but there is support for growth to Category 4 this weekend.

 

Forecast Tracks

 

Steering Currents

High Pressure and our old frontal boundary is helping to guide the upper level winds and move Dorian towards the west into Florida. Timing is key, as Dorian has shown signals of slowing its forward movement. That is why plotting out where it may be in 5 days in correlation to the systems to the north will determine if and when it curves back north.

 

Impact Earlier And Wider Than Landfall

Despite the forecast to hit land Monday night or Tuesday, the tropical storm force winds over 39 mph are likely on Sunday. A the storm grows larger, it will likely reach more than the current 105 miles in all directions.

 

Computer Model Agreement?
The GFS and European ECMWF Models are in more agreement on location, but still off by a few hours for landfall between Monday night and Tuesday morning. The frequent Air Force Reconnaissance Flights have increased our data and reliability.
These maps were based on the morning GFS and overnight Euro. The morning ECWMF model made the shift to turn north before landfall. I will have more on that this evening.


Landfall Cone Of Uncertainty
Landfall Tracks spread out as the storm gets closer to the coast. This is to show the potential error in models and variation of influencing
forces. It is still possible for this to turn north or south and keeps all of Florida in play. The turn north is most likely, but that could happen
before landfall or once inland, to include a track over Orlando.
Note the wind forecast peaking Monday morning over Freeport, Bahamas at 135 mph gusting to 165mph+ 

 


National Hurricane Center Forecast Track

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
Interests in southern and central Florida should monitor the
progress of Dorian.

Impact For Mid Atlantic?
Due to the uncertainty of this growing and slowing storm, I hesitate to speculate at this point. It impossible to have heavy rain in all or just
coastal portions next week. We could still be missed complete. This all depends on the timing of this in coordination with weather systems
heading our way.  Stay tuned as this will be in the news for the next week.

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