Saturday August 31 2019

Last night Hurricane Dorian reached Category 4 intensity. This morning is has winds of 140 mph, which is holding from 11 PM last night. This is a very impressive looking storm that has continued to be stronger and farther north that forecasts. The timing of the movement AND intensity is what has changed the forecast when it approaches Florida, but actually puts it back to what was thought a few days ago…

 

UPDATE AT 8 AM(Click for new report and maps):  Winds 145 mph and new models shift track a little farther north

 

Dorian is now expected to turn up the Florida coast and puts South and North Carolina in play for landfall.  See why and many forecast maps below.

Hurricane Dorian IR Satellite

 

Hurricane Dorian Headlines

  • Winds 140 mph
  • Tropical Storm Winds extend 105 miles form the center
  • Hurricane Fore Winds extend 30
  • Bahamas expecting deadly 15 Ft Storm Surge and up to 20 inches of rain
  • Forecast turns north before Florida, but storm surge and impact still along the coast with rain, winds, and high waves!
  • Many airports in Florida planning to close due to stronger winds aloft
  • Forecast for South and North Carolina landfall still needs to be considered not a sure thing yet
  • Ocean City: Forecast curves east by over 150 miles on Friday. Rain and wind from outer bands could reach there Thursday. Still worth watching for adjustment

 

Hurricane Dorian Satellite Loop

Dorian has gotten dry air into the west (front) side of the storm. This has held further development. There will be more fluctuations in intensity this weekend as Dorian experiences an eye wall replacement cycle.

 

SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 72.6W
ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM E OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES
Forecast Shifting
There are many factors that go into the forecast track, and forward movement. This includes the strength of the storm, but also the weather systems in the US that will interact with it when it arrives. 

HWRF Hurricane Model Forecast 

European Model Forecast ---> slider

 

Wind Arrival Time

Tropical Storm Fore Intensity Over 39 mph. The timing is still the same Sunday night into Monday for coastal Florida, but Tuesday and Wednesday for South Carolina. This will be a day or more ahead of the core of the Dorian’s eye.

 

National Hurricane Forecast Tracks

These maps were made to zoom in closer. Please cone of uncertainty. As seen already, the center is likely NOT to be where this ends up… But farther out in time there will be more factors to shift where this ends up.

 

 

National Hurricane Official Full Forecast Track/Cone 

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Andros Island
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.  Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

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Click this map for more on the regional forecast zones