Sunday September 1 2019 at 8 AM

Hurricane Dorian is now a Category 5 storm 160 mph winds. Less than 1% of hurricanes reach this level and it will cross Great Abaco Island in the Bahamas today. This well defined storm has continued to show a drop in central pressure as it begins a two day assault on the islands east of Florida. This will be devastating to the northern islands and could change the geography, for real! The storm surge and erosion will be that strong!

Hurricane Dorian Infrared Satellite at 8 AM

 

Guidance Shifted West

Models has trended a little west. New Tropical Storm Warnings are in place for parts of Florida as the forecast cone keeps the coast under the potential. State of Emergency in place for South Carolina.  New Forecast guidance has the storm turning north before the coast and heading closer to North Carolina and outer impact for Ocean City Maryland on Friday. This is big enough and close enough to send some storm surge up the Chesapeake Bay later in the week.

Hurricane Dorian Visible Satellite at 8 AM

Look at that amazing structure. The eye is mostly clear in the middle. The eye wall is where the strongest winds are located and the clouds spread up and out like a cone. This is the ‘stadium effect’ we can see enhanced by the morning shadows.

Hurricane Dorian Headlines

  • Winds 160 mph, Category 5
  • Tropical Storm Force Winds extend 105 miles form the center
  • Hurricane Force Winds extend 30 miles form the center
  • Bahamas: Warning for northern  islands and evacuations now. Expecting deadly 20 Ft Storm Surge and up to 25 inches of rain
  • Florida: Tropical Storm Watch for the coast and Brevard County evacuating now.
  • King Tide- Salt water into fresh water ares! Storm surge and impact still along the coast with rain, winds, and high waves!
  • Many airports in Florida are planning to close due to stronger winds aloft
  • Forecast leans toward North Carolina possible landfall still needs to be considered not a sure thing yet.
  • Chesapeake Bay: Storm Surge possible starting Wednesday night or Thursday.
  • Ocean City: Forecast Thursday some rising water and storm surge may begin. Tropical Storm force winds are possible here, with the best chance for rain bands on Friday. The eye is expected to pass east by over 150 miles on Friday.

Hurricane Dorian Infrared Satellite Loop

The colder, higher cloud tops are colored in dark red and white.

 

 

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.5N 76.5W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...927 MB...27.37 INCHES

 

Forecast Maps

HWRF Model Animation Shifting West?

This model shows the turn to the northwest over the Bahamas. What is new is that it now pushes the storm into Florida between Daytona and Jacksonville.   This is farther west than the NHC and European which keeps to offshore to NC. This brings it out back into the ocean over South Carolina.

 

 

Wind Arrival Forecast

Due to the slow down and turn well east of Florida, the tropical storm force wind arrival times have changed. It looks like Monday morning for coastal Florida. Tuesday for north Florida and Georgia. Wednesday for South and North Carolina.

 

National Hurricane Center Forecast Tracks

This is stronger and closer!  The cone NOT THE CENTER is what to consider. Florida to North Carolina still under threat.

 

Maryland Impact?

The size and wave memory will bring surge around the corner into the Chesapeake Bay starting Wednesday night and Thursday morning despite the weaker storm and track moving away Friday.

 

North Carolina and Maryland Timing

While the Tropical Storm force winds will be moving in Wednesday. The eye of Dorian wil be passing by the coast Thursday afternoon and evening. These areas will be in storm mode for at least two days.

European ECMWF Model Forecast

This keeps the eye offshore then clipping OBX North Carolina. Close enough for destructive waves, wind, and rainfall.. but the worst over remaining over the ocean.

 

Ocean City Maryland Impact?

As the storm exits the coast, the outer edge could still provide a few hours of heavy rain on top of some surge for Ocean City Maryland.

Forecast Thursday some rising water and storm surge may begin. Tropical Storm force winds are possible here, with the best chance for rain bands on Friday. The eye is expected to pass east by over 150 miles on Friday.

 

The National Hurricane Center has shifted their cone which still matches the European Model.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Andros Island

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Golden Beach to Deerfield Beach

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

 

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