2 PM Sunday September 1

Hurricane Dorian has winds of 185 mph and is the strongest to hit The Bahamas on record. It’s happening right now! This ranks 2nd for top wind speed in the Atlantic. The record for top winds and deepest pressures in Atlantic history is below.

This will change the map, as has happened periodically throughout history. Some of Abaco Island and others in the north Bahamas will be reshaped or disappear from the wind, storm surge over 20 feet, flooding rain, and epic erosion. The curve to the north still shows it will stay off of the Florida coat but watches and warnings have been issued there.

Hurricane Dorian Infrared Satellite 2 PM

 

 

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.5N 77.1W
ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM OVER GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...911 MB...26.90 INCHES

This now ranks tied with the 3rd fastest winds in the Atlantic Basin

  • Allen 1980 190 mph
  • Labor Day 1935 190 mph
  • Dorian 2019 185 mph
  • Wilma 2005 185 mph
  • Gilbert 1988 185 mph
  • Mitch 1998 180 mph
  • Rita 2005 180 mph
  • Irma 2017 180 mph

But Hurricane Dorian is NOT in the Top 10 Lowest Pressure Yet

  1. Wilma 2005 882 mb
  2. Gilbert 1988 888 mb
  3. Labor Day 1935 892 mb
  4. Rita 2005 895 mb
  5. Allen 1980 895 mb
  6. Camille 1969 900 mb
  7. Katrina 2005 902 mb
  8. Mitch 1998 905 mb
  9. Dean 2007 905 mb
  10. Maria 2017 908
  11. Dorian 2019 911 mb

 

Hurricane Dorian Visible Satellite 2 PM

The eye was over Great Abaco Island at 2 PM

 

Hurricane Dorian Headlines

  • Winds 185 mph, Gusts top 200 mph Category 5
  • Ranks tied for 2nd on record in the Atlantic.
  • Tropical Storm Force Winds extend 140 miles form the center
  • Hurricane Force Winds extend 45 miles form the center
  • Bahamas: Expecting deadly 20 Ft Storm Surge and up to 25 inches of rain
  • Florida: Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watches up for the central Atlantic coast.
  • King Tide- Salt water into fresh water ares! Storm surge and impact still along the coast with rain, winds, and high waves!
  • Many airports in Florida are planning to close due to stronger winds aloft
  • Forecast leans toward North Carolina possible landfall still needs to be considered not a sure thing yet.
  • Chesapeake Bay: Storm Surge possible starting Wednesday night or Thursday.
  • Ocean City: Forecast Thursday some rising water and storm surge may begin. Tropical Storm force winds are possible here, with the best chance for rain bands on Friday. The eye is expected to pass east by over 150 miles on Friday.

 

Hurricane Dorian Infrared Satellite Loop

The colder, higher cloud tops are colored in dark red and white.

 

Tropical Storm Wind Arrival Forecast

Florida gets it started Monday.

Ocean City Maryland may get it starting Thursday evening.

 

Forecast Tracks

Computer Model Spaghetti Plots

The consensus has this curving along but just off shore of the US East Coast through NC.

 

National Hurricane Center Forecast Track

Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch for parts of the Florida east coast.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach to the Volusia/Brevard County Line

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Andros Island
* North of Deerfield Beach to the Volusia/Brevard County Line

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Golden Beach to Deerfield Beach
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

 

Wider Track

European ECMWF Model Forecast

This keeps the eye offshore then clipping OBX North Carolina. Close enough for destructive waves, wind, and rainfall.. but the worst over remaining over the ocean.

 

Ocean City Maryland Impact?

As the storm exits the coast, the outer edge could still provide a few hours of heavy rain on top of some surge for Ocean City Maryland.

Forecast Thursday some rising water and storm surge may begin. Tropical Storm force winds are possible here, with the best chance for rain bands on Friday. The eye is expected to pass east by over 150 miles on Friday.

 

Official NHC Forecast Track/Cone Map

 

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