11 AM Tuesday September 3 2019
Hurricane Dorian is still a very powerful storm, so reporting winds ‘down’ to 110 mph can be deceiving. This is now a Category 2 Storm but there is wave memory of a stronger storm still sloshing the ocean off the Florida and Bahamas coasts. The long duration and multiple high tides will bring wide spread beach erosion and flooding even with the storm offshore.
As expected when it weakened, the storm is spreading out to cover a larger area. This is one of the concerns along the US coast. Hurricane Warnings reach to South Carolina and Watches up to eastern North Carolina.
The storm is moving a little bit at 2 mph, but away from Grand Bahama Island and closer to the US.
Hurricane Dorian Stats at 5 AM
- Hurricane Force Winds reach 60 mph from the center
- Tropical Storm Force Winds reach 175 miles away. This area will expand more
- Center is 105 miles east of Fort Pierce, FL
- Movement NW at 2 mph
Hurricane Dorian IR Satellite
The eye is no longer evident on satellite, but there is still tremendous amount of convection dumping heavy rain, wind, and waves. Outer bands have been reaching Florida all morning.
Hurricane Dorian IR Satellite Loop
Hurricane Dorian Visible Satellite
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.1N 78.6W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM N OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF FORT PIERCE FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES
Hurricane Dorian Visible Satellite Loop
Hurricane Dorian Watches and Warnings
Storm Surge Forecast
Flagler/Volusia County Line FL to Cape Lookout NC...4 to 7 ft Jupiter Inlet FL to the Flagler/Volusia County Line FL...3 to 5 ft
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Jupiter Inlet FL to South Santee River SC A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * North of South Santee River SC to Cape Lookout NC A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Grand Bahama and the Abacos Islands in the northwestern Bahamas * Jupiter Inlet FL to Ponte Vedra Beach FL * North of Edisto Beach SC to South Santee River SC A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of Ponte Vedra Beach FL to Edisto Beach SC * North of South Santee River SC to Duck NC * Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Deerfield Beach FL to Jupiter Inlet FL * North of Ponte Vedra Beach FL to Edisto Beach SC A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Lake Okeechobee
The forward movement will speed up over the next few days. I’ve highlighted the morning forecast locations to point out the spread of distance each day.
The storm will NOT hit Ocean City directly, but the outer bands are expected to reach the southern half of Delmarva Friday morning.
RAINFALL Forecast: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through Friday: Northwestern Bahamas...Additional 2 to 4 inches, isolated storm totals over 30 inches. Coastal Carolinas...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. Atlantic Coast from the Florida peninsula north of West Palm Beach through Georgia...3 to 6 inches, isolated 9 inches. Southeast Virginia...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.
Wind Speed Arrive (TS over 39 mph)
There is a 40% chance of sustained winds over 39 mph in Ocean City, MD Friday morning.
National Hurricane Center Official Forecast
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