Thursday Evening September 5 2019

Hurricane Dorian is still looking impressive on satellite tonight with it’s closet approach to the US coast. The eye has 100 mph winds and is passing within 30 miles of Cape Fear, SC. The eye is expected to make landfall in North Carolina early Friday morning, then head back out into the Atlantic.

Hurricane Dorian IR Satellite

Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued for southern Maryland. Tornado Watches have been issued just south in Virginia. But how far north will the rain reach? That is what is shown in the first slider below, and it could get to Baltimore. It may feel like a Nor’easter in central Maryland with gusty winds, but on the edge of light rain showers. The real feel of the storm will be in St. Mary’s to Salisbury and Ocean City.

See the wind and waves forecast maps below as well.

 

Hurricane Dorian IR Satellite Loop

 

 

Forecast Maps

European ECMWF Model

Morning– The edge of the rain on the north ends will try to reach Baltimore and I-95 up to Philadelphia. The heaviest rain will be south of Ocean City around Virginia Beach to OBX.

 

Afternoon – The interaction of our old front and the edge of Dorian will try to keep a band of rain around I-95. The bulk of the rain (according to this model) will be just offshore of Ocean City. 

 

NAM 3 KM —> slider

Hourly forecast maps show a higher resolution. The rain around Baltimore may spotty, but should be light.

Ocean City should have its heaviest rain between 9 AM and 4 PM. This is shown to be more than the European Model above.

 

Tropical Storm and Hurricane Warnings

Tropical Storm Conditions expected in Maryland include:  Ocean City, Salisbury, Cambridge, and St. Mary’s City.

Weather Risks:

  • Winds over 39 mph
  • Coastal flooding
  • Heavy rain bands
  • Potential tornadoes

 

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Cape Fear to Poquoson VA
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Neuse and Pamlico Rivers
* Hampton Roads

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River to the North Carolina/Virginia border
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North Carolina/Virginia border to Fenwick Island DE
* Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point southward
* Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island
* Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach MA
* Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard MA

 

Wind Forecast Maps

Tracking Hurricane Dorian with the strongest local winds on Friday. Watch the direction change as it passes by.

Coastal Wind Forecast –> slider

 

Local Wind Forecast –> slider

 

Chesapeake Bay Wind Forecast

Friday morning: The wind direction from the Northeast. This what will slosh water to the western and southwestern part of the Bay. If there is some Bay flooding, this would be the time.

Speed on the Bay 15 to 25 mph with gusts over 30 mph

Ocean City winds from the Northeast 25 mph and higher

 

Friday Afternoon: Winds shift from the north. This will help drain water out of the Bay, but along the way water will be high in St. Mary’s County towards Norfolk.

Wind speed 20 to 35 mph with higher gusts

Ocean City winds from the Northeast 30 to 40 mph and higher

Midnight: Winds from the Northwest and high lighter on the Bay. Coastal winds will shift offshore and ease as well

 

Waves Forecast —> slider

 

Find tides for your location on the Bay: Click here

 

Also see: Atmospheric Memory Of Hurricanes Over Thousands Of Years Shaped The Coas

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Click this map for more on the regional forecast zones