Sunday October 20 2019
Nestor was a tropical storm for about a day, but it left a trail of destruction with numerous tornadoes in Florida. The core Low is no longer tropical, but has a lot of rain that be with our region all day. The track appears to be a little north of initial forecast models. In fact the rain arrived a little earlier as well. Notes I will consider for future events into winter. All that matters now is that most of us will have rain all day long. Here’s how it should play out:
- Sunday Soaker- Rain all day
- Totals Around 1/2″, Up To 2″ In Southern MD
- Temperatures Remain Near 50ºF, Warmer 60s In Heavy Rain Zone
- More Rain Tuesday And Next Weekend
The rain has moved in early and it is obviously the heavier rain will fall in southern Maryland.
A steady heavy rain most of the day around Washington/Annapolis, south and east. But some bands of moderate rain will extend into metro Baltimore later this morning and this afternoon.
Afternoon High Temperatures
Radar Simulation NAM 3 Km Model —> slider
Some heavy rain could push into central Maryland this afternoon. The heaviest is likely where temperatures reach the 60s to near 70ºF in lower Delmarva.
The ECMWF Model is most realistic for totals
The NAM 3Km Model does appear to have it’s old convective feedback problem. That often overplays rain events. I’m showing this just for comparison and posterity. In winter, it should be noted that this may also overplay snow events. That’s when more pay close attention.
More Rain On The Way
More rain will arrive Tuesday, then Friday afternoon into Saturday morning.
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Moderate Drought For Half of Maryland and Virginia: Drought Monitor
Many areas inland from the cities should drop into the 30s by tomorrow morning. This could do it. See the look at when we normally expect the first frost in this link.
Baltimore Weather At BWI May Not Be As Hot As Reported
Construction at the airport close to the weather station may be added artificial heat. Click here or the image for the details.
Atmospheric Memory Shaped The US East Coast
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